Head of Regional Security and Conflict Studies at the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Research Fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science
Source: Twitter page
We should stop weapons supply to Ukraine, cause the more weapons, the longer war and the more casualties! This is a risky and manipulative argument, used by loyal to Russia experts and politicians to stop soppier of Ukraine.
Here are several counter arguments to that.
Military counter argument. UA army is efficient in repelling massive offensive. Russia had to leave Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and almost all Kharkiv regions. 4 weeks of attacks in Luhansk region didn’t bring Russia control over main cities, besides of Kreminna. Russia occupied there rural areas.
Success in repelling Russia offensive happened BEFORE massive weapons delivery to Ukraine. Decisions on new massive supplies, including of heavy offensive weapons, started being made on the edge of March-April and continues now.
Once armed much better, Ukrainian army is callable of even more efficient counteroffensive operations. Not only in Donbas, but definitely in Kherson, part of Zaporizhzhya. Better armament means not prolongation, but first of all effective short-term counterattacks.
In fact, the best chance to decrease scope of the war and prevent conflict for many years forward, is to support Ukraine as massively, as possible, and in the shortest possible time.
Now humanitarian counter argument. Lack of weapons and defense capacities will bring not a ceasefire, but to War Crimes and civilians casualties in occupied areas. Bucha Massacre is what happens, when there is no weapons and Ukrainian army has to step back.
No weapons means occupation. Now none international org-n is able to make Russia confirm humanitarian corridors, stop deportation and illegal conscription of Ukrainian men to Russian army and army of self-proclaimed “L/DPR”. Neither can they influence destiny of deported people in Russia.
And political argument, as the final point. Appeasers of Russia omit the fact, that Putin isn’t seeking constructive agreement at this stage. He wants the whole South and Donbas, at least, before a military pause. War is on the stage, when military front is still prevailing.
