The expert poll “Political Quarterly: fall 2020” was conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation from October 18 to October 23, 2020. 68 experts participated in the poll.
- Foreign policy is where the President excelled the most: this is the only area where expert ratings have grown (2.7/5) for a third quarter in a row.
- The ratings of communication with the public are no longer decreasing and are now the same as they were at the beginning of the year (2.5).
- The ratings of the President’s policy towards resolving the conflict in Donbas increased in the third quarter and stand at 2.1.
- At the same time, the ratings of the President’s measures to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic decreased (2.1)
- The implementation of the reform agenda (1.9) and staffing decisions (1.5) remain the weakest areas.
One answer to the “five important questions”
- Experts had a mostly uniform opinion on the goal of the “Presidential poll”: 83% of them (58 persons) believe that the poll serves to mobilize the “Servant of the People” voters to take part in the local elections.
- Further, the majority of experts (71% or 49 persons) believe that the President is attempting to fulfill the election promises by conducting the poll.
- There is no agreement among experts about whether the poll aims to shift the attention of the public away from the poor handling of the pandemic and justify questionable decisions.
Expert analysis of the consequences of the events that took place in the 3rd quarter
The results of the local elections and the increase in COVID-19 cases will have a significant impact on the political situation in Ukraine in 2021.
The ceasefire in Donbas and the recognition of the edict to appoint Artem Sytnyk as Head of NABU unconstitutional will have moderate impact. The “Presidential poll” will not have significant impact.
Expert forecast: the events that might take place in the 4th quarter
- The dismissal of the Health Minister M. Stepanov and the intensification of lockdown measures are the two events that the majority of experts evaluate as likely to take place.
- Curiously, the experts believe that the resignation of the Cabinet of Ministers is more likely to take place than the dismissal of the Minister of the Internal Affairs A. Avakov. Further, experts believe that Avakov has strengthened his bargaining power as compared to his influence in the 2nd quarter.
- At the same time, experts believe that neither Ukraine will halt the negotiations with Russia about the war in Donbas nor will the “Normandy four” summit take place in the 4th quarter. They also believe that the dismissal of the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) or the dismissal/resignation of the President are not likely to take place.
- Among the considered nonstandard political decisions that are a frequent part of the public discussion, the decision that experts treat most negatively is the official request of the Ukraine’s government to receive COVID-19 vaccines from Russia and to finance the budget by increasing the supply of money.
- Strengthening lockdown restrictions and the declaration of the state of emergency that impacts civil rights to halt the spread of COVID-19 are the other two decisions that experts evaluate negatively.
- The majority of experts have a negative attitude towards the idea to halt the foreign debt payments until the end of the pandemic and condemn the idea that Ukraine should grant political support to one of the sides in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
- At the same time, the majority of experts supported the hypothetical proposal to ban parties that cooperate with the Russian government and revise the Minsk agreements at Ukraine’s initiative.
- Curiously, most experts positively evaluated the legalization of firearms and euthanasia for the terminally ill – still, the majority of respondents did not approve of the initiatives.
SURVEY RESULTS
1. Please evaluate the performance of President Volodymyr Zelensky in July-September 2020 in the following areas:
| 1 – very inefficient | 2 – partly inefficient | 3 - mediocre | 4 – partly efficient | 5 – very efficient | Undecided | Average score |
Communication with the public | 9 | 26 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 2,5 |
Mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic | 21 | 25 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2,1 |
Foreign policy | 11 | 14 | 26 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2,7 |
Implementation of the reform agenda | 19 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1,9 |
Resolution of the conflict in Donbas | 15 | 30 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2,1 |
Staffing decisions | 42 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1,5 |
| 1st quarter | 2nd quarter | 3rd quarter |
Communication with the public | 2,1 | 2,3 | 2,7 |
Mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic | 2,6 | 2,2 | 2,5 |
Foreign policy | 2,5 | 2,7 | 2,1 |
Implementation of the reform agenda | 1,9 | 1,9 | 2,1 |
Resolution of the conflict in Donbas | 2,0 | 2,0 | 1,9 |
Staffing decisions | 1,5 | 1,6 | 1,5 |
2. Do you agree with the following statements about the “five important questions” that President Volodymyr Zelenskyi announced shortly before the local elections in fall 2020?
| 1 – Most likely, yes | 2 – Most likely, no | 3 - Undecided |
The questions are a means of mobilizing the “Servant of the People” voters to take part in the local elections | 83,8 | 5,9 | 10,3 |
It is an earnest attempt by the President to fulfil the election promises | 7,4 | 70,6 | 22,1 |
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The goal of the initiative is to shift the attention of the general public away from the failure of the government to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic | 54,4 | 23,5 | 22,1 |
These questions are used to test public opinion before a launch of a nationwide referendum when the law on referendum will be approved by the parliament | 23,5 | 50,0 | 26,5 |
It is an attempt to justify questionable decisions via illegitimate means | 57,4 | 26,5 | 16,2 |
3. How do you assess the impact of these events on the political processes in Ukraine in 2021?
| 1 – no impact | 2 – some impact | 3 – moderate impact | 4 – significant impact | 5 – decisive impact | Undecided | Average score |
Results of the local elections | 0 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 3,9 |
Increase in COVID-19 cases | 0 | 7 | 19 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 3,6 |
Ceasefire in the Donbas region | 3 | 21 | 30 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2,8 |
The recognition of the edict to appoint Artem Sytnyk as Head of NABU unconstitutional | 5 | 20 | 22 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 2,8 |
The signing of the Political, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership Agreement between Ukraine and the UK | 7 | 27 | 18 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2,6 |
The conduction of the poll initiated by the President of Ukraine on the 25th of October | 8 | 33 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2,4 |
The continuation of mass protests in Belarus | 18
| 30 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2,1 |
4. Please evaluate the likelihood of these events taking place in the coming three months:
| 1 –will definitely not take place | 2 – will most likely not take place | 3 - The probability of the event taking place and not taking place is roughly the same | 4 – will most likely take place | 5 – will definitely take place | Undecided | Likelihood of taking place |
The dismissal of Ukraine’s Health Minister M. Stepanov | 1,5 | 27,9 | 29,4 | 30,9 | 2,9 | 7,4 | 51,5 |
The strengthening of lockdown measures similar to those conducted in the spring 2020, including the limitations on transportation, businesses, enterprises, and institutions | 1,5 | 35,3 | 25,0 | 26,5 | 5,9 | 5,9 | 50 |
The dismissal of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine | 5,9 | 32,4 | 44,1 | 13,2 | 0,0 | 4,4 | 41,9 |
The halt of negotiations with Russia as part of Normandy talks and the Minsk agreements | 10,3 | 32,4 | 41,2 | 5,9 | 1,5 | 8,8 | 37,9 |
The summit of the “Normandy four” leaders | 19,1 | 27,9 | 32,4 | 10,3 | 0,0 | 10,3 | 34,4 |
The dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) of Ukraine | 26,5 | 45,6 | 22,1 | 1,5 | 0,0 | 4,4 | 24,6 |
The dismissal of the Internal Minister A. Avakov | 35,3 | 47,1 | 13,2 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 4,4 | 19,2 |
Dismissal/resignation/etc. of the President | 70,6 | 11,8 | 11,8 | 0,0 | 1,5 | 4,4 | 10,7 |
The agreement between Ukraine and Russia to end the war in Donbas | 66,2 | 25,0 | 5,9 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 2,9 | 9,5 |
5. Now consider the potential nonstandard political decisions. What is YOUR attitude towards these decisions?
| 1 – Completely opposed | 2 – Evaluate negatively | 3 - Neutral | 4 – Evaluate positively | 5 - Completely support | Not of importance/undecided |
The financing of the budget by increasing the money supply | 63,2 | 25,0 | 2,9 | 4,4 | 0,0 | 4,4 |
The revision of the Minsk agreements at Ukraine’s initiative | 2,9 | 19,1 | 17,6 | 41,2 | 16,2 | 2,9 |
The provision of political support to one of the sides in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict | 30,9 | 27,9 | 20,6 | 14,7 | 2,9 | 2,9 |
The halt on foreign debt payments until the end of the pandemic | 33,8 | 30,9 | 20,6 | 7,4 | 4,4 | 2,9 |
The introduction of the state of emergence and the limitations of certain civil rights (freedom to move, immunity) to hamper the spread of the coronavirus | 45,6 | 25,0 | 16,2 | 10,3 | 2,9 | 0,0 |
The official request to Russia to receive the coronavirus vaccine | 80,9 | 13,2 | 1,5 | 4,4 | 0,0 | 0,0 |
The ban on parties that cooperate with the Russian government | 2,9 | 22,1 | 4,4 | 23,5 | 44,1 | 2,9 |
The legalization of euthanasia for the terminally ill, including those who have COVID-19 | 5,9 | 22,1 | 16,2 | 33,8 | 16,2 | 5,9 |
The legalization of firearms | 14,7 | 22,1 | 11,8 | 26,5 | 22,1 | 2,9 |
Please indicate your occupation
| Number of responses |
Expert, analyst, scientist | 52 |
Journalist | 6 |
Activist | 14 |
Other | 4 |
List of polled experts
1. Andriy Biletskyi
2. Anufriev Yuriy
3. Balabanova Hanna
4. Belyi Dmytro
5. Boyarchuk Dmytro
6. Bunyk Mykola
7. Verheles Tetyana
8. Volodymt Dubrovskyi
9. Volodymr Kuprii
10. Horetskyi Oleksii
11. Hryshko Volodymyr
12. Denys Davydenko
13. Dmytro Tuzhanskyi
14. Diomin Denys
15. Zamyatin Victor
16. Zakharchenko Artem
17. Ilona Solohub
18. Inna Voloshevych
19. Iryna Romanchenko
20. Iryna Slavinska
21. Kalitenko Oleksandr
22. Kyrychenko Yuliya
23. Kolodii Antonina
24. Kolomiets Oleksandra
25. Kolohina Anna
26. Krayev Oleksandr
27. Kresak Yuriy
28. Kryvosheyev Dmytro
29. Levonova Mariya
30. Lymar Olha
31. Lynnyk Nataliya
32. Lubov Palyvoda
33. Marharyta Hvostova
34. Mariya Heletii
35. Myronenko Yevhen
36. Mincheva Yuliya
37. Mishenko Mykhailo
38. Mostipaka Oleksandr
39. Oksana Kuzyakiv
40. Oleksandr Neberykut
41. Oleksiy Haran
42. Oleksiy Koshel
43. Olena Bulatova
44. Olha Zhmurko
45. Olha Miroshnyk
46. Pashkov Mykhailo
47. Petrenchuk N.
48. Ponomarenko Volodymyr
49. Popov Yevhen
50. Prudka Olha
51. Pyatyhorets Roman
52. Rybachenko Victor
53. Romanuk Vasyl
54. Stehnii Oleksandr
55. Stepanenko Iryna
56. Stepanov Mykola
57. Suslov Anton
58. Tymoschuk Victor
59. Khavronyuk Mykyla
60. Khymychuk Anastasiya
61. Shlinchak Victor
62. Yuschenko Oleksandr
63-67. These experts preferred to remain anonymous
