The expert poll "Political Quartal: Summer 2020" was conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation from July 14 to 22, 2020. A total of 75 civic activists, political analysts, and journalists were interviewed. Survey was focused on events of April - June 2020.
The main goal of the Political Expertise Quarterly series is upholding transparent governance in Ukraine. This survey is conducted on regular basis. It is developed for monitoring of efficiency of governmental decision making and framing credible political projections.
The methodology of the project is available here (in Ukrainian).
The press conference "Political Quarterly: Summer 2020" was conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation as a part of USAID/ENGAGE activity, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact in Ukraine. The content of the event is a complete responsibility of Pact and its partners and does not necessarily reflect the views of the USAID or the US Government.
Survey results
- Expert assessment of the President's effectiveness remains low. None of the respective areas of his activity gained 3 points (out of 5 possible).
- Expert assessment of President Zelensky's performance has not changed significantly since the previous quarter (January-March 2020).
- According to expert opinion, President’s communication with the society has deteriorated: respective score decreased from 2.6 to 2.2 points.
- Assessment of President’s contribution to mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic slightly improved: the score increased from 2.5 to 2.7 and foreign policy – from 2.1 to 2.3.
- President’s human resource management efforst to find solution of the conflict in Donbas have got lower expert grades – 1,5 and 1,9 points, respectively.
- Experts were also negative abourt effectiveness of the parliamentary majority: all spheres of the “Servanty of People” legislative activity were rated lower than 3 (1 for the lowest and 5 for highest mark).
- The legislative efforts to move forward digital transformation have got the highest appreciation from the experts, although parliamentary majority barely gained 2.9 points for it. Social and budgetary policy, as well as foreign policy, were rated slightly better than others - a little more than 2 points.
- Legal and anti-corruption policies of the parliamentary majority gained the lowest scores - 1.6 points. Expert opinion about majority’s work for national security and defense, as well on educational and science policies, was also pretty cool.
- According to the polled experts, Ihor Kolomoisky, Rinat Akhmetov, and Viktor Medvedchuk have the greatest influence on the parliament among other well-known leaders of the big financial and industrial groups. Their impact is rated as high (more than 4 points out of 5). Former President Poroshenko was placed 4th.
- According to experts, in the 2nd Q (April – June 2020) the greatest impact on the nearest future will have such decision and events as:
- Establishment of the new, enlarged districts within existing regions;
- adoption of law on the land market;
- disbursement the first tranche of the IMF loan under a stand-by agreement
- transition from strict to adaptive nationwide quarantine.
- Experts think that these events will have a positive effect. It is minimally positive in case of district enlargement and land market reform. The polled experts are a bit more positive about cooperation with the IMF and the transition to adaptive quarantine.
- Resignation of the Head of National Bank Yakiv Smolii, according to experts, is the most influential negative event of the second quarter. It is considered to have mild negative consequences until the end of the year.
- In the third quarter, according to experts, there is a high probability of mass protests and rallies (probability rate is 61%). Re-imposition of the strict lockdown measures is also on the list of probable events (45%). Among the less probable, but plausible events experts put:
- Threat of use of force from Russia and Russian offensive in Donbas and/or Crimea (39% probability).
- Dismissal of the acting Minister of Education and Science Serhiy Shkarlet (39% probability).
- It should be noted that the probability of resignation of Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova is estimated by experts as low as arrest of Petro Poroshenko (32% and 29% respectively).
- Experts do not expect resignation of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov (23% probability).
- Interviewed experts are strongly dismissive about hypothetical restoration of the 1996 version of the Constitution of Ukraine and the transition to a presidential-parliamentary republic. The same negative attitude can be observed toward the possible postponement of the nationwide local elections until 2021 due to the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
- Noteworthy, that a hypothetical submission of the Minsk agreements as a basis for achieving peace for approval by all-Ukrainian referendum is assessed by experts much more negatively than Ukraine's unilateral withdrawal from the Minsk negotiation process.
SURVEY RESULTS
1. Please, rate the effectiveness of President Volodymyr Zelensky DURING APRIL-JUNE 2020 in the following areas:
| 1 – very inefficient | 2 – partly inefficient | 3 – mediocre | 4 – partly efficient | 5 – very efficient | hard to say | The score for the 2nd quarter | The score for the 1st quarter |
Foreign policy | 26,7 | 33,3 | 26,7 | 13,3 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 2,3 | 2,1 |
Resolution of the conflict in Donbas | 36,0 | 42,7 | 17,3 | 2,7 | 0,0 | 1,3 | 1,9 | 1,9 |
Human resourse management | 54,7 | 33,3 | 10,7 | 1,3 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 1,6 | 1,5 |
Support of key reforms | 34,7 | 40,0 | 18,7 | 6,7 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
Communication with society | 30,7 | 26,7 | 29,3 | 10,7 | 1,3 | 1,3 | 2,2 | 2,6 |
Mitigation of COVID-19 pandemic | 14,7 | 29,3 | 32,0 | 20,0 | 2,7 | 1,3 | 2,7 | 2,5 |
2. The first year of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine of the 9th convocation ends in July 2020. The key role in the parliament belongs to the mono-majority formed in August 2019 by the Party “Servant of People”. It plays decisive role in legislative process. Therefore, we ask you to evaluate the efficiency of the "Servant of the People" faction (as a parliamentary majority) during the first year of Verkhovna Rada:
| 1 – very inefficient | 2 – partly ineffective | 3 – mediocre | 4 – partly inefficient | 5 – very inefficient | Hard to say | General score |
Economic and development policy (agricultural policy, support of national industries, domestic and foreign investment, transport and infrastructure) | 33,3 | 37,3 | 24,0 | 4,0 | 0,0 | 1,3 | 2,0 |
Budget policy | 26,7 | 34,7 | 34,7 | 2,7 | 0,0 | 1,3 | 2,1 |
Financial, tax and customs policy | 36,0 | 38,7 | 18,7 | 5,3 | 0,0 | 1,3 | 1,9 |
Social policy (social security, pensions, veterans' issues, health care) | 26,7 | 36,0 | 29,3 | 6,7 | 0,0 | 1,3 | 2,2 |
Digital transformation | 9,3 | 21,3 | 36,0 | 28,0 | 2,7 | 2,7 | 2,9 |
Environmental policy | 30,7 | 34,7 | 25,3 | 4,0 | 0,0 | 5,3 | 2,0 |
Humanitarian policy (culture and art) | 42,7 | 30,7 | 22,7 | 4,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 1,9 |
Education, research and development policy | 41,3 | 38,7 | 14,7 | 4,0 | 0,0 | 1,3 | 1,8 |
Legal and anti-corruption policy (protection of human rights, judicial system, law enforcement agencies, anti-corruption bodies) | 50,7 | 36,0 | 13,3 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 1,6 |
National security and defense policy | 44,0 | 30,7 | 22,7 | 2,7 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 1,8 |
Foreign Policy | 38,7 | 24,0 | 28,0 | 9,3 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 2,1 |
3. How do you assess the influence of the listed "wealthiest Ukrainians" on the legislative process in the Verkhovna Rada during the first year of 9th Convocation (submission of draft laws, lobbying for amendments, approval/rejection of changes, drafting the state budget)
| 1 – very little, particularly no influence | 2 – weak influence | 3 – moderate influence | 4 – strong influence | 5 – decisive influence | Hard to say | General score[1] |
Rinat Akhmetov | 0,0 | 1,3 | 20,0 | 45,3 | 32,0 | 1,3 | 4,1 |
Oleh Bakhmatiuk | 9,3 | 16,0 | 30,7 | 16,0 | 0,0 | 28,0 | 2,7 |
Andrii Verevskyi | 2,7 | 17,3 | 29,3 | 6,7 | 0,0 | 44,0 | 2,7 |
Ihor Kolomoiskyi | 0,0 | 2,7 | 9,3 | 46,7 | 38,7 | 2,7 | 4,2 |
Yurii Kosiuk | 2,7 | 17,3 | 36,0 | 13,3 | 1,3 | 29,3 | 2,9 |
Viktor Medvedchuk | 0,0 | 2,7 | 14,7 | 48,0 | 32,0 | 2,7 | 4,1 |
Viktor Pinchuk | 2,7 | 18,7 | 36,0 | 30,7 | 5,3 | 6,7 | 3,2 |
Petro Poroshenko | 2,7 | 16,0 | 38,7 | 29,3 | 12,0 | 1,3 | 3,3 |
Hryhorii Surkis | 8,0 | 22,7 | 29,3 | 9,3 | 6,7 | 24,0 | 2,8 |
Serhii Tihipko | 10,7 | 28,0 | 24,0 | 5,3 | 0,0 | 32,0 | 2,4 |
Dmytro Firtash | 10,7 | 22,7 | 17,3 | 16,0 | 5,3 | 28,0 | 2,8 |
Valerii Khoroshkovskyi | 10,7 | 24,0 | 22,7 | 9,3 | 2,7 | 30,7 | 2,6 |
TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
4. Please, rate the probability of the following events in the next three month
| 1 - definitely won't happen | 2 - probably won't happen | 3 - the probability of occurrence and non-occurrence is equal | 4 – will probably happen | 5 – will definitely happen | Hard to say | Probability rate (%) |
Cancellation of Privatbank nationalization | 25,3 | 52,0 | 18,7 | 2,7 | 1,3 | 0,0 | 25,7 |
Arrest of the "European Solidarity" leader Petro Poroshenko | 20,0 | 50,7 | 21,3 | 8,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 29,3 |
49,3 | 34,7 | 13,3 | 2,7 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 17,4 | |
Russia's ultimatum and threat to launch an offensive against Ukraine in Donbass and / or Crimea | 14,7 | 28,0 | 42,7 | 12,0 | 1,3 | 1,3 | 39,2 |
Dismissal of Minister of the Interior Arsen Avakov | 28,0 | 56,0 | 13,3 | 2,7 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 22,7 |
Dismissal of Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova | 17,3 | 48,0 | 26,7 | 6,7 | 1,3 | 0,0 | 31,7 |
Dismissal of Acting Minister of Education and Science Serhiy Shkarlet | 6,7 | 38,7 | 40,0 | 9,3 | 0,0 | 5,3 | 38,8 |
Mass protests and rallies | 4,0 | 12,0 | 36,0 | 29,3 | 17,3 | 1,3 | 61,2 |
Return to complete lockdown in response to a new wave of coronavirus spread | 2,7 | 33,3 | 48,0 | 14,7 | 1,3 | 0,0 | 44,8 |
Termination of Ukraine's cooperation with the IMF | 22,7 | 44,0 | 25,3 | 6,7 | 0,0 | 1,3 | 29,2 |
Dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine | 26,7 | 52,0 | 14,7 | 4,0 | 0,0 | 2,7 | 24,1 |
5.1. In your opinion, HOW SIGNIFICANT will be the impact of the following events on the political situation in Ukraine in the coming year?
| 1 - will not have any impact | 2 - slight impact | 3 - medium impact | 4 - significant impact | 5 - decisive impact | Hard to say | Power of impact rate |
Resignation of the National Bank Chairman Yakiv Smolii | 1,3 | 28,0 | 32,0 | 33,3 | 4,0 | 1,3 | 3,1 |
Resignation of the Chairman of the Antimonopoly Committee Yurii Terentiev | 16,0 | 40,0 | 18,7 | 14,7 | 0,0 | 10,7 | 2,4 |
Publication of "Derkach tapes" | 13,3 | 42,7 | 33,3 | 8,0 | 0,0 | 2,7 | 2,4 |
Adoption of the law on the land market | 4,0 | 16,0 | 21,3 | 46,7 | 10,7 | 1,3 | 3,4 |
Disbursment of the first tranche of the IMF loan under the stand-by agreement | 0,0 | 21,3 | 32,0 | 36,0 | 8,0 | 2,7 | 3,3 |
Transition from strict to adaptive quarantine | 1,3 | 14,7 | 44,0 | 28,0 | 10,7 | 1,3 | 3,3 |
The process of establishment of the new enlarged districts within existing regions | 2,7 | 8,0 | 24,0 | 49,3 | 14,7 | 1,3 | 3,7 |
5.2. In your opinion, what will be the CONSEQUENCES of such events for the political situation in Ukraine in the short term (in the next 12 months)?
| 1 – absolutely negative | 2 – probably negative | 3 – equally negative and positive | 4 – probably positive | 5 – absolutely positive | Hard to say | Impact quality rate(+/-) from -2 to +2 |
Resignation of the National Bank Chairman Yakiv Smolii | 16,0 | 40,0 | 26,7 | 4,0 | 0,0 | 13,3 | -0,8 |
Resignation of the Chairman of the Antimonopoly Committee Yurii Terentiev | 2,7 | 22,7 | 30,7 | 8,0 | 0,0 | 36,0 | -0,3 |
Publication of "Derkach tapes" | 4,0 | 36,0 | 34,7 | 6,7 | 1,3 | 17,3 | -0,4 |
Adoption of the law on the land market | 5,3 | 26,7 | 22,7 | 36,0 | 4,0 | 5,3 | +0,1 |
Disbursment of the first tranche of the IMF loan under the stand-by agreement | 0,0 | 5,3 | 28,0 | 42,7 | 20,0 | 4,0 | +0,9 |
Transition from strict to adaptive quarantine | 1,3 | 12,0 | 25,3 | 41,3 | 13,3 | 6,7 | +0,6 |
The process of establishment of the new enlarged districts within existing regions | 5,3 | 28,0 | 26,7 | 25,3 | 6,7 | 8,0 | +0,1 |
6. And now, let us think about non-conventional political moves. We are interested to know about YOUR attitude toward some hypothetical solutions and events:
| 1 - Strongly against | 2 - Rather negative attitude | 3 - neutral attitude | 4 – Rather positive attitude | 5 - Fully support | Do not care / hard to say |
Submitting provisions of the Minsk agreements as a basis for achieving peace for approval by all-Ukrainian referendum | 49,3 | 20,0 | 13,3 | 14,7 | 0,0 | 2,7 |
Postponement of local elections to autumn 2021 due to the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic | 42,7 | 34,7 | 9,3 | 10,7 | 1,3 | 1,3 |
Restoration of the Constitution 1996 / transition to presidential republic | 62,7 | 24,0 | 6,7 | 2,7 | 2,7 | 1,3 |
Ukraine's unilateral withdrawal from the Minsk negotiation process (Trilateral Contact Group) | 16,0 | 30,7 | 17,3 | 25,3 | 2,7 | 8,0 |
List of polled experts
1. Anna Parfonova
2. Belitser Natalia
3. Bielyi Dementii
4. Bykovets Viacheslav
5. Bidenko Yuliia
6. Bilous Oleh
7. Bolhan Valerii
8. Valerii Pekar
9. Vitalii Dorokh
10. Vladyka Pavlo
11. Volodymyr Sokol
12. Havryliuk Mariia
13. Hanna Khomechko
14. Harahuts Olena
15. Henyk Volodymyr
16. Hermanova Yuliia
17. Hradova Yulyia
18. Hres Dmytro
19. Denys Davydov
20. Dmytro Bulakh
21. Yevhen Zakharov
22. Zakrevska Viktoriia
23. Zakharova Olena
24. Zelenina Olena
25. Zots Ihor
26. Ivan MURAKhA
27. Ivanna Fedynchuk
28. Ihor Kanevskyi
29. Ihor Pavlovych
30. Iryna Latysh
31. Kalitenko Oleksandr
32. Karina Milevska
33. Koval Serhii
34. Kolesnyk Dmytro
35. Konovalov Artem
36. Kopina Olena
37. Kostiantyn Pidlubnyi
38. Lada L. Roslytska
39. Larysa Hnatchenko
40. Leonyd Shtekel
41. Lintsova Nadiia
42. Liudmyla Yamshchykova
43. Maryna Zhyvotkova
44. Matychak Tetiana
45. Melnyk Maksym
46. Myron Dmytryk
47. Myslinskyi Andrii
48. Mykhailo Honchar
49. Miroshnyk Olha
50. Nataliia Shulha
51. Nataliia Yakovleva
52. Oleh Ovcharenko
53. Oleksandr Halias
54. Oleksandr Chumak
55. Oleksandr Shchukyna
56. Oleksii Plotnikov
57. Olha Koval
58. Olha Lvova
59. Pashkov Mykhailo
60. Petrenko Ihor
61. Potiekhin Oleksandr
62. Roman Bezsmertnyi
63. Roman Kulchynskyi
64. Riabchuk Mykola
65. Serhii Danylenko
66. Serhii Kasianchuk
67. Serhii Potomkin
68. Sidenko Volodymyr
69. Solomiia Rozhko
70. Suleimanov Ibrahim
71. Khrystenzen Yuryi
72. Tsomyk Hanna
73. Shtekel Leonyd
74. Yaroshenko Yevhenii
75. Expert decided to remain anonymous
[1] Among those, who answered
