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8 September 2023

Are the US and Ukraine at odds over the counteroffensive?

Full text of the article: Vox

Ukraine understands that Western support has always been predicated on Ukraine proving itself — that is, Kyiv has to show it can win on the battlefield. Only after that does the Western aid they’ve been asking for come.

Petro Burkovskiy, executive director of Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation (DIF), a Ukraine-based think tank, said that has increased distrust between the US and Ukraine. The US withholding aid looks like a way to escape a Russian defeat or weaken Russia in a protracted struggle. “The question is, why? Why are they afraid of delivering the decisive blow?” Burkovskiy asked.

Ukraine, he suggested, does not need its Western backers to attack Russia’s “centers of gravity,” such as Russian aircraft or its Black Sea Fleet. “This can be done without the Western supplies. We have now demonstrated we can do this without Western interference, and we will continue to do this,” he said. “And there will be more independent decision-making.” Only when the US decides it wants to deliver a decisive blow to Russia, he said, will Ukraine and the US be fully in sync.

Ukraine’s drone strikes into Moscow and attacks in Crimea show Kyiv is developing its own capabilities and fighting power. That will not eliminate the need for US and Western aid, but it is, partly, an insurance policy for whatever comes next.