Local Election 2020: the Electoral Preferences of Citizens

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28 вересня 2020
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The nationwide survey was conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation jointly with the sociological service of the Razumkov Center from August 14 to 19, 2020, via face-to-face interviews at the respondents’ place of residence. 2022 respondents aged over 18 y.o. were interviewed in all regions of Ukraine, except for Crimea and the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, according to a sample representative of the adult population according to the key socio-demographic indicators. The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.3%. The survey was funded as part of the MATRA project of the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

The event “A TEST OF DEMOCRACY AND COMMON SENSE: the electoral preferences of citizens a month before the local election” is conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation as a part of USAID/ENGAGE activity, which is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact in Ukraine. The content of the materials presented at the event are the sole responsibility of Pact and its partners and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) or the United States government.

  • The absolute majority of citizens (82%) intend to participate in the local election that will take place in October 2020. Notably, the political mobilization is high across all regions in Ukraine.
  • Most respondents (55%) believe that honesty (the transparency of income; non-involvement with dirty dealings, violations, and corruption) is the crucial quality when it comes to evaluating candidates looking to become heads of city and village governments. Almost half of the voters also believe that successful community management experience (48%) and a proper political platform (47%) are vital. For 33% of respondents, openness and communication of the candidate with citizens is important. More than a third of citizens believe that it is the candidate to reside in communities where the candidate is elected (39%) and have a team of like-minded people and professionals (39%). more than a quarter of respondents pay attention to the candidate’s management experience (29%) and education (28%). 19% of voters support candidates that have compatible political beliefs.
  • The majority of Ukrainians (57%) believe that the upcoming local election will be fair: more specifically, 16% of respondents are sure that no violations will take place, and 41% believe that some violations will take place, but they won't affect the overall result. At the same time, almost a quarter of citizens (23%) suppose that the election results can be falsified, and 6% are confident that the results will be falsified. Almost 14% of respondents are undecided on this issue. The Western region has the highest proportion of those who believe that the election will be fair: 26% believe that the election will be fair, and 42% believe that the violations will not affect the overall result. The highest level of distrust towards the fairness of the local election process is in the East: 31% suppose that the election can be falsified, and 13.5% are confident that they will be falsified. The followers of the “Opposition Platform - For Life” party share this concern: 31% of these voters suppose that the election will be falsified, and 8% are confident of it.
  • 31% of respondents will support the same party in the local election that they voted for during the parliamentary election to Verkhovna Rada in 2019. 28% lean towards voting for the same party, but do not rule out the possibility that they might vote for at different party. 7.5% will vote for a different party, and 7% will support the candidates who do not belong to any party. 27% our respondents are undecided. Curiously, the residents of the Western region (41%) and the “European solidarity” party supporters (41%) display the highest degree of loyalty. The highest proportion of those who do not rule out the possibility of voting for a different party is in the Central region (31%) and among the followers of the “Fatherland” party (38%). The highest proportion of those who will not vote for a different party is in the Eastern region (10%) and among those who voted for the “Opposition Platform - For Life” party (8%).
  • Citizens struggled to say whether they would support their candidate of choice to the local parliament (rada) if he or she enlists in a political party that they don't support. 16% of respondents would be ready to support the candidate, and 18% would choose to vote neither for the candidate nor for the party in this scenario. 30% respondents haven't determined their candidate of choice, and 28% are undecided.
  • 34% of respondents have knowledge of the local headquarters of the party they intend to support, 30% are unaware of it, and 11% said that there's no such headquarters where they reside. 24% of respondents said that they have not yet determined the candidate they intend to vote for. As it turns out, political parties engage voters more actively in the Eastern region, where 40% of respondents have knowledge of the headquarters of the party they support.
  • Voters do not have a uniform opinion concerning the possible improvement of conditions following the local election locally and on the national level. 38% of respondents are confident that local election will not affect the conditions in the local communities, but 34% believe that the local election will improve the conditions in the local communities. 41% of respondents believe that the local election will have no impact on the conditions on the national level; 29% believe that the conditions will improve. The proportion of those who expect changes for the worse does not exceed 5%. The Western region has the highest proportion of respondents who believe that the situation will change for the better: 41% expects these changes locally and 36% does on the national level. The followers of the “European Solidarity“ party are by far the most optimistic: 61% of these respondents believe that the local election will improve the conditions locally and 57% believe that the positive changes will take place on the national level. The voters of “Opposition Platform – For Life“ and “Fatherland” parties are the most skeptical ones.

Survey Results

1. In October 2020, local election will take place. Do you intend to participate in the voting process?

Most certainly, yes

41,2

Yes

40,7

No

4,5

Most certainly, no

6,1

Undecided

7,5

2. What are the qualities of candidates looking to become heads of local communities that are important to you? (choose as many options as you see fit)

Honesty (the transparency of income; non-involvement with dirty dealings, violations, and corruption)

55,5

Successful community management experience (city or village level)

48,4

Proper political platform

47,1

Openness and communication with citizens

42,8

Residence in communities where candidates were elected

39,0

A team of like-minded people and professionals

38,6

Management experience

29,0

Higher education

27,8

Compatible political beliefs

19,2

High level of intellect

14,4

Support from non-governmental organizations

13,0

A team of like-minded deputies

11,9

Experience in the non-governmental sector of volunteer experience

11,4

The support of a political leader that I trust

8,7

The backing of a party that I support

8,5

Age

7,1

Language of communication

6,3

Attractive physique

1,9

Religiosity or shared religious beliefs

1,4

Gender

1,1

Sexual orientation

0,9

Other

1,6

Undecided

3,4

3. Do you believe that the election held in your local community will be fair?

The election will be fair

16,2

Some violations will take place, but they won’t affect the overall result

41,0

I suppose that the results might be falsified

23,2

I am sure that the results will be falsified

6,0

Undecided

13,6

4. Do you intend to support the same party in the local election that you voted for in the parliamentary election to Verkhovna Rada in 2019?

Yes, most certainly

30,6

Yes, but I do not rule out the possibility of voting for a different party

27,6

No, I intend to support a different party

7,5

The candidates I intend to support in the local election are not members of any party

7,1

Undecided

27,2

5. What do you intend to do if the candidate you support in the local election enlists in a party that you don’t support?

I will vote for the candidate’s party

16,5

I will vote for neither the candidate nor for the party

17,9

I will abstain from voting

4,6

I will spoil by ballot

2,1

I haven’t decided on the candidate I intend to support

30,4

Undecided

28,6

6. Does your city or village have the local headquarters of the party you support?

Yes

34,3

No

11,2

I don’t know

30,1

I haven’t decided on the candidate or the party I intend to support

24,4

7. Do you believe that the local election will improve the conditions in your local community?

Yes, the election will improve the conditions

34,5

The election will bring no change

38,3

The election will worsen the conditions

4,7

Undecided

22,5

8. Do you believe that the local election will improve the conditions on the national level?

Yes, the election will improve the conditions

29,4

The election will bring no change

41,6

The election will worsen the conditions

5,2

Undecided

23,7

 

SURVEY RESULTS BY REGION

1. In October 2020, local election will take place. Do you intend to participate in the voting process?

 

West

Center

South

East

Most certainly, yes

45,8

37,4

42,5

42,0

Yes

37,1

45,7

39,2

37,1

No

3,8

5,3

4,2

4,5

Most certainly, no

5,8

5,6

2,5

8,7

Undecided

7,5

6,0

11,7

7,7

2. What are the qualities of candidates looking to become heads of local communities that are important to you? (choose as many options as you see fit)

 

West

Center

South

East

Honesty (the transparency of income; non-involvement with dirty dealings, violations, and corruption)

46,0

46,8

47,9

53,3

Successful community management experience (city or village level)

27,7

29,5

25,0

31,3

Proper political platform

8,1

14,4

2,9

13,7

Openness and communication with citizens

29,4

25,2

35,7

26,5

Residence in communities where candidates were elected

33,2

39,0

51,2

38,8

A team of like-minded people and professionals

16,7

15,1

17,5

28,1

Management experience

58,1

49,1

76,8

53,0

Higher education

41,9

37,4

50,8

47,9

Compatible political beliefs

9,4

7,0

10,8

8,8

High level of intellect

7,1

9,1

6,6

10,7

Support from non-governmental organizations

12,7

12,1

10,4

15,6

A team of like-minded deputies

46,3

42,6

58,5

49,0

Experience in the non-governmental sector of volunteer experience

37,9

38,6

34,4

41,0

The support of a political leader that I trust

10,2

10,6

8,7

16,8

The backing of a party that I support

7,9

4,0

8,8

9,8

Age

0,8

0,9

-

2,1

Language of communication

1,0

1,9

0,8

3,0

Attractive physique

14,2

14,5

18,7

12,4

Religiosity or shared religious beliefs

7,9

5,6

5,4

6,2

Gender

0,8

0,6

0,8

1,3

Sexual orientation

2,7

1,6

0,4

0,4

Other

0,4

1,8

1,3

2,1

Undecided

4,4

2,2

2,1

4,9

3. Do you believe that the election held in your local community will be fair?

 

West

Center

South

East

The election will be fair

26,0

12,9

15,4

12,6

Some violations will take place, but they won’t affect the overall result

42,5

48,1

43,2

28,4

I suppose that the results might be falsified

14,2

23,8

22,8

30,6

I am sure that the results will be falsified

2,3

3,4

5,4

13,5

Undecided

15,0

11,9

13,3

14,8

4. Do you intend to support the same party in the local election that you voted for during the parliamentary election to Verkhovna Rada in 2019?

 

West

Center

South

East

Yes, most certainly

30,9

28,1

41,3

29,2

Yes, but I don’t rule out the possibility of voting for a different party

26,1

30,6

25,4

25,4

No, I intend to support a different party

4,6

8,8

3,3

10,4

The candidates I intend to support in the local locations don’t belong to a party 

7,7

7,7

1,3

8,3

Undecided

30,7

24,8

28,7

26,7

5. What do you intend to do if the candidate you support in the local election enlists in a party that you don’t support?

 

West

Center

South

East

I will vote for the candidate’s party

15,2

18,0

11,2

17,7

I will vote for neither the candidate nor the party

17,1

16,5

21,2

19,0

I will abstain from voting

4,6

4,3

3,7

5,3

I will spoil by ballot

2,1

2,3

0,8

2,3

I haven’t decided on the candidate I intend to support

31,1

33,4

33,6

24,1

Undecided

29,9

25,5

29,5

31,6

6. Does your city or village have the local headquarters of the party you support?

 

West

Center

South

East

Yes

32,9

31,0

34,9

40,0

No

15,6

10,1

10,0

9,1

I don’t know

30,4

31,7

30,7

27,4

I haven’t decided on the candidate or party I intend to support

21,0

27,1

24,4

23,5

7. Do you believe that the local election will improve the conditions in your local community?

 

West

Center

South

East

Yes, the election will improve the conditions

41,1

34,2

34,0

29,0

The election will bring no change

35,7

40,4

34,4

39,4

The election will worsen the conditions

2,5

3,8

1,3

9,6

Undecided

20,7

21,6

30,3

22,0

8. Do you believe that the local election will improve the conditions on the national level?

 

West

Center

South

East

Yes, the election will improve the conditions

36,0

31,3

26,6

22,2

The election will bring no change

38,4

42,9

37,3

44,7

The election will worsen the conditions

3,5

4,7

4,1

7,9

Undecided

22,1

21,1

32,0

25,2

 

SURVEY RESULTS BY PARTY PREFRENCES

1. Do you believe that the election held in your local community will be fair?

 

«Servant of the People» ( Kornienko)

«Opposition Platform – For Life» (Boyko, Medvedchuk, Rabinovich)

«European Solidarity» (Poroshenko)

«Fatherland» (Tymoshenko)

The election will be fair

19,2

13,6

25,3

24,4

Some violations will take place, but they won’t affect the overall result

47,7

38,2

51,6

38,4

I suppose that the results might be falsified

17,6

30,9

15,7

23,3

I am sure that the results will be falsified

3,2

8,2

1,4

2,9

Hard to say

12,2

9,1

6,0

11,0

2. Do you intend to support the same party in the local election that you voted for during the parliamentary election to Verkhovna Rada in 2019?

 

«Servant of the People» ( Kornienko)

«Opposition Platform – For Life» (Boyko, Medvedchuk, Rabinovich)

«European Solidarity» (Poroshenko)

«Fatherland» (Tymoshenko)

Yes, most certainly

40,4

39,4

46,4

36,9

Yes, but I don’t rule out the possibility of voting for a different party

30,9

30,8

32,8

37,6

No, I intend to support a different party

4,8

8,0

3,4

2,6

The candidates I intend to support in the local locations don’t belong to a party 

6,5

7,9

6,1

5,1

Undecided

17,4

13,9

11,3

17,8

3. Do you believe that the local election will improve the conditions in your local community?

 

«Servant of the People» ( Kornienko)

«Opposition Platform – For Life» (Boyko, Medvedchuk, Rabinovich)

«European Solidarity» (Poroshenko)

«Fatherland» (Tymoshenko)

Yes, the election will improve the conditions

46,0

33,1

61,5

33,1

The election will bring no change

33,6

39,7

21,6

39,0

The election will worsen the conditions

1,4

4,1

1,8

2,3

Undecided

19,0

23,0

15,1

25,6

4. Do you believe that the local election will improve the conditions on the national level?

 

«Servant of the People» ( Kornienko)

«Opposition Platform – For Life» (Boyko, Medvedchuk, Rabinovich)

«European Solidarity» (Poroshenko)

«Fatherland» (Tymoshenko)

Yes, the election will improve the conditions

42,1

24,9

57,1

30,2

The election will bring no change

36,9

43,2

21,7

42,4

The election will worsen the conditions

3,4

4,1

3,7

2,9

Undecided

17,6

27,8

17,5

24,4