Local Election 2020: the Electoral Preferences of Citizens

The nationwide survey was conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation jointly with the sociological service of the Razumkov Center from August 14 to 19, 2020, via face-to-face interviews at the respondents’ place of residence. 2022 respondents aged over 18 y.o. were interviewed in all regions of Ukraine, except for Crimea and the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, according to a sample representative of the adult population according to the key socio-demographic indicators. The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.3%. The survey was funded as part of the MATRA project of the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

The event “A TEST OF DEMOCRACY AND COMMON SENSE: the electoral preferences of citizens a month before the local election” is conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation as a part of USAID/ENGAGE activity, which is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact in Ukraine. The content of the materials presented at the event are the sole responsibility of Pact and its partners and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) or the United States government.

• The absolute majority of citizens (82%) intend to participate in the local election that will take place in October 2020. Notably, the political mobilization is high across all regions in Ukraine.
• Most respondents (55%) believe that honesty (the transparency of income; non-involvement with dirty dealings, violations, and corruption) is the crucial quality when it comes to evaluating candidates looking to become heads of city and village governments. Almost half of the voters also believe that successful community management experience (48%) and a proper political platform (47%) are vital. For 33% of respondents, openness and communication of the candidate with citizens is important. More than a third of citizens believe that it is the candidate to reside in communities where the candidate is elected (39%) and have a team of like-minded people and professionals (39%). more than a quarter of respondents pay attention to the candidate’s management experience (29%) and education (28%). 19% of voters support candidates that have compatible political beliefs.
• The majority of Ukrainians (57%) believe that the upcoming local election will be fair: more specifically, 16% of respondents are sure that no violations will take place, and 41% believe that some violations will take place, but they won't affect the overall result. At the same time, almost a quarter of citizens (23%) suppose that the election results can be falsified, and 6% are confident that the results will be falsified. Almost 14% of respondents are undecided on this issue. The Western region has the highest proportion of those who believe that the election will be fair: 26% believe that the election will be fair, and 42% believe that the violations will not affect the overall result. The highest level of distrust towards the fairness of the local election process is in the East: 31% suppose that the election can be falsified, and 13.5% are confident that they will be falsified. The followers of the “Opposition Platform - For Life” party share this concern: 31% of these voters suppose that the election will be falsified, and 8% are confident of it.
• 31% of respondents will support the same party in the local election that they voted for during the parliamentary election to Verkhovna Rada in 2019. 28% lean towards voting for the same party, but do not rule out the possibility that they might vote for at different party. 7.5% will vote for a different party, and 7% will support the candidates who do not belong to any party. 27% our respondents are undecided. Curiously, the residents of the Western region (41%) and the “European solidarity” party supporters (41%) display the highest degree of loyalty. The highest proportion of those who do not rule out the possibility of voting for a different party is in the Central region (31%) and among the followers of the “Fatherland” party (38%). The highest proportion of those who will not vote for a different party is in the Eastern region (10%) and among those who voted for the “Opposition Platform - For Life” party (8%).
• Citizens struggled to say whether they would support their candidate of choice to the local parliament (rada) if he or she enlists in a political party that they don't support. 16% of respondents would be ready to support the candidate, and 18% would choose to vote neither for the candidate nor for the party in this scenario. 30% respondents haven't determined their candidate of choice, and 28% are undecided.
• 34% of respondents have knowledge of the local headquarters of the party they intend to support, 30% are unaware of it, and 11% said that there's no such headquarters where they reside. 24% of respondents said that they have not yet determined the candidate they intend to vote for. As it turns out, political parties engage voters more actively in the Eastern region, where 40% of respondents have knowledge of the headquarters of the party they support.
• Voters do not have a uniform opinion concerning the possible improvement of conditions following the local election locally and on the national level. 38% of respondents are confident that local election will not affect the conditions in the local communities, but 34% believe that the local election will improve the conditions in the local communities. 41% of respondents believe that the local election will have no impact on the conditions on the national level; 29% believe that the conditions will improve. The proportion of those who expect changes for the worse does not exceed 5%. The Western region has the highest proportion of respondents who believe that the situation will change for the better: 41% expects these changes locally and 36% does on the national level. The followers of the “European Solidarity“ party are by far the most optimistic: 61% of these respondents believe that the local election will improve the conditions locally and 57% believe that the positive changes will take place on the national level. The voters of “Opposition Platform – For Life“ and “Fatherland” parties are the most skeptical ones.

Survey Results

1. In October 2020, local election will take place. Do you intend to participate in the voting process?

2. What are the qualities of candidates looking to become heads of local communities that are important to you? (choose as many options as you see fit)

3. Do you believe that the election held in your local community will be fair?

4. Do you intend to support the same party in the local election that you voted for in the parliamentary election to Verkhovna Rada in 2019?

5. What do you intend to do if the candidate you support in the local election enlists in a party that you don’t support?

6. Does your city or village have the local headquarters of the party you support?

7. Do you believe that the local election will improve the conditions in your local community?

8. Do you believe that the local election will improve the conditions on the national level?

SURVEY RESULTS BY REGION

1. In October 2020, local election will take place. Do you intend to participate in the voting process?

2. What are the qualities of candidates looking to become heads of local communities that are important to you? (choose as many options as you see fit)

3. Do you believe that the election held in your local community will be fair?

4. Do you intend to support the same party in the local election that you voted for during the parliamentary election to Verkhovna Rada in 2019?

5. What do you intend to do if the candidate you support in the local election enlists in a party that you don’t support?

6. Does your city or village have the local headquarters of the party you support?

7. Do you believe that the local election will improve the conditions in your local community?

8. Do you believe that the local election will improve the conditions on the national level?

SURVEY RESULTS BY PARTY PREFRENCES

1. Do you believe that the election held in your local community will be fair?

2. Do you intend to support the same party in the local election that you voted for during the parliamentary election to Verkhovna Rada in 2019?

3. Do you believe that the local election will improve the conditions in your local community?

4. Do you believe that the local election will improve the conditions on the national level?