3rd Anniversary of the Maidan: expert survey

On November 11–18, 2016 the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation conducted expert survey dedicated to assessment of the events on Maidan Nezalenzhnosti (Independence Square) in Kyiv, their repercussions and lessons for the future. 69 experts participated in the survey. For comparison, the results of the expert survey “2^nd Anniversary of Maidan” conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation on November 18–19, 2015 and the expert survey “1^st Anniversary of Maidan” conducted on November 13–18, 2014 were used in this survey.

• With the time that elapsed since the events of Euromaidan experts are ready to provide more accurate definitions of how to describe this phenomenon. The most widely accepted interpretation of Maidan is as “The Revolution of Dignity” – a revolution for democratization and the European choice. The second most supported definition among the surveyed experts is the interpretation of Maidan as mass protests and growth in civil activeness on the backdrop of their dissatisfaction with the policy of the ruling power.
• The absolute majority of the surveyed experts feel that Maidan was a victory and their position on this has dominated for three years in a row. At the same time, the opinion that the goals of Maidan were only partially achieved prevails to this day.
• The absolute majority of experts argue that the main goals of Maidan that were achieved are the renewal of the path to Euro-integration, the signing of the Association Agreement with the European Union, as well as the overthrow of the ex-president Viktor Yanukovych. Yet another achievement was the partial renewal of leadership and the creation of new opportunities for social mobility. Besides the achievements that experts mentioned in 2014 and 2015, today they also name among others the change in the value system of society, the formation of new anti-corruption bodies and the true start of the fight against corruption at the highest level of government.
• Among the goals of the Euromaidan that were not achieved were first and foremost the systemic fight against corruption, the liquidation of all corruption schemes, the full “reset” of the system of power and its qualitative renewal. In addition, for the last three years experts noted among the unachieved goals is that those responsible for and guilty of crimes against participants of the Euromaidan were not brought to accountability and representatives of the previous ruling elites were not punished for the crimes committed.
• Among the most significant positive consequences of the Euromaidan experts highlight first and foremost the activization of civil society, the emergence of a volunteer movement, the formation of a political nation and the growth in the level of national self-awareness, a return to the course of Euro-integration and the implementation of reform in key spheres that combine with the change in values and the system of relations in society and the state.
• The main negative repercussions of Maidan (albeit indirect) were the Russian aggression, which led not only to the violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, but also to the loss of human lives. Experts also named the aggravation of the socio-economic crisis and the overall decline in the standards of living in Ukraine among the negative consequences.
• The absolute majority of the surveyed experts feel that the repeat of Maidan in the short-term future is impossible or highly improbable. For comparison, let us recall that on the eve of the 2^nd anniversary of Maidan in 2015 the opinions of experts regarding the probability of a new Maidan were divided, while in 2014 experts said the repeat of the Maidan was totally probable.
• The majority of experts believe the main reasons for the probable arise of mass acts of protest are the decline in people’s standards of living and the aggravation of the economic crisis. At the same time, the opinion that there may not be a Maidan-3, but an artificially organized insurgency or revolution (by Russia, oligarchs, certain political forces, etc.) is widespread among experts.