Ukraine Joining NATO? What is behind Kurt Volker's words?

During a recent visit to Odesa, former U.S. special representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker stated that Ukraine's accession to NATO might happen at the end of the war during a visit to Odesa. He cited two examples. One of them is Germany, whose unoccupied part - the FRG - joined NATO in 1956. Volker also mentioned North and South Korea, which are still at war.

The example of Germany is not Kurt Volker's invention. Our Ukrainian experts have been talking about this since 2014. In formal and informal conversations, serious people cite the example of Germany - that divided Germany became a member of NATO. The Russian occupation of Crimea and parts of Donbas was a clear analog. In 2014, there was talk that only NATO membership would allow Ukraine to avoid a major war. This was all ignored, and now they are trying to find some application for this already old formula. And it is not about Ukraine's accession to NATO. I will explain why Korea was mentioned.

This conversation has been going on since last fall

In American non-governmental circles, the possibility of concluding with a so-called Korean peace between Ukraine and Russia is now very popular, where part of Ukrainian territories remains occupied, while the free rump state joins the West. after successful advances by Ukrainian troops in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Then there was a thesis that Ukraine would not be able to liberate all of its territories, and perhaps some options should be sought when the war ends - Ukraine becomes part of the West, part of NATO, and the occupied territories become part of Russia. The thesis came from the prediction that Ukraine would not be able to achieve any decisive breakthrough, the war would drag on for years, there would be many victims, and in the end, the result would be the same. The front line would not significantly change, and the defense line would become the border. This is what happened in Korea. As these scenarios were being discussed in the United States, Ukrainians were surveyed to see how they would accept them. The Ukrainian side outright rejected this option at that stage.

We saw leaks in the press about secret negotiations with Russia. There were visits and negotiations between the head of the CIA, William Burns, and representatives of Russian intelligence in November. But Russia rejected this option - peace in exchange for territory. As did Ukraine. Instead, there is a formula for peace that President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke about this at the G-20 summit in November, and this formula is now the main one. It provides for the liberation of all territories, but there is no mention of NATO membership there. It is only about guarantees for Ukraine. So this line is now leading in our government's negotiations with Western countries. Plus, we are developing this thesis and saying that the best guarantees for Ukraine are NATO membership. The visits of the President of Ukraine to the summits of Scandinavian and Baltic countries, then a tour of Italy, Germany, France, and Great Britain, were dedicated to determining clear terms for Ukraine's accession to NATO. The only question is whether Ukraine will join during or after the war. Our closest allies believe that Ukraine should join after the war, which means that Ukraine should join with its entire territory.

Kurt Volker voices the opinion of a particular part of the American establishment that accession may occur during the war, but it may mean that not all of Ukraine will be liberated. In summary, our Western allies are considering several different options in close consultation with us. I think the decision will be made based on the results of this summer or even the winter military campaign this year.