PULASKI POLICY PAPER: Ukrainian Offensive Operations in 2022: Strategic Context, Capabilities, Risks and Likely Scenarios

Source:  The Casimir Pulaski Foundation

Authors:

Petro Burkovskyi, Executive Director, Democratic Initiatives Foundation,

Prof. Olexiy Haran, National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy

Started on 24 February 2022, Russian invasion ended a “hybrid” period of armed aggression against Ukraine’s independence, democracy and policy of integration with EU and NATO. After five and a half months of war, despite huge losses and early failures, Russia shows no intention to scale back its offensive operations. Although underequipped and constrained with deficit of resources, the Ukrainian army plans to regain all territories lost since 2014. That is why it is important to look at the likely scenarios of the war and assess what feasible Western actions can influence it in the near future.