National Exit Poll: parliamentary elections 2019
On July 21, the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, and Razumkov Centre called a press conference to announce the start of the “National Exit Poll 2019 – parliamentary elections” project. The Consortium, established by the above-mentioned organizations, will conduct the polling of voters at exits from the polling stations on July 21, which is the day of the Ukrainian parliamentary elections.
The key objective of the project is to ensure effective public control over the integrity of the elections. The Supervisory Board, consisting of leaders of non-governmental organizations and prominent Ukrainian journalists and experts, will oversee the implementation of the project.
The results of the National Exit Poll 2019 will be released on July 21, 2019 in Ukrinform (8/16 Bohdana Khmelnytskoho St.) according to the following schedule:
- 14:00 – press conference to report on the process of the exit poll, including problems and difficulties faced by interviewers during polling.
- 19:45 – press conference to report early results of the exit poll (data as of 18:00).
- 22:00 – press conference to report the exit poll updated results (data as of 20:00).
The following international donors supported the National Exit Poll during the 2019 parliamentary elections: “Enhance Non-Governmental Actors and Grassroots Engagement” (ENGAGE) activity, funded by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact in Ukraine; the Delegation of the European Union to Ukraine; the International Renaissance Foundation; and the Embassy of Canada in Ukraine.
All information related to the National Exit Poll will be available at the following media resources:
National Exit Poll 2019 web page – https://dif.org.ua/exit-poll
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation webpage – http://dif.org.ua/
DIF Facebook page – https://www.facebook.com/deminitiatives
DIF Тwitter page – https://twitter.com/dem_initiatives
Kyiv International Institute of Sociology webpage – https://www.kiis.com.ua
Razumkov Center webpage – http://razumkov.org.ua/
On the air and on the web-sites of information partners
Methodology of the exit poll
Two prominent sociological companies – Kyiv International Institute of Sociology and Razumkov Centre – will perform field work of the exit poll project.
The total population of the exit poll consists of voters who voted at the polling stations on the territory of Ukraine (excluding special polling stations in hospitals, prisons, military bases, embassies, and excluding occupied territories). The sample is developed to be representative of Ukraine in general and for its 4 regions – West, Centre, East, and South.
The sample is two-staged. At the first stage, polling stations are selected in each oblast proportional to the percentage of voters in the given oblast. The polling stations are randomly selected. During the second stage, voters are selected through systematic random sampling (i.e. every 12th voter is selected).
Central offices of sociological companies receive results from the field several times a day.
Exit poll results will be aggregated for the whole of Ukraine and for each of the four macro regions:
- West – Zakarpattia, Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts;
- Centre – Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Kropyvnytskyi, Cherkassy, Sumy, Chernigiv, Kyiv oblasts and the city of Kyiv;
- South – Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro oblasts;
- East – Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (government-controlled territories).
Number of polling stations – 300 (150 per each sociological company).
Sample size – approximately 13,000 respondents (depending on voter turnout).
Number of interviewers – two or three interviewers will work at each polling station. Overall, there will be almost 800 specially trained interviewers.
Margin of sampling error
The statistical sampling error including design effect will not exceed 1,3%, but there are also errors which depend on various factors. Based on our experience of the past exit polls, conducted with the same methodology, we assume that sample error will not exceed 2,5% for the leaders and will stay within the limits of 0,5-1% for other candidates.
Data collection methods and questionnaire
Data collection during the exit poll is based on methodology of the “secret ballot”, because it reduces the number of refusals and significantly increases the reliability of the exit poll data. Respondents will not be asked the direct question: “Whom did you vote for?”, but will be offered to write their answers personally in a paper questionnaire and to throw it into the sealed exit poll box. The questionnaire also includes several additional questions on gender, age, education, and time of making voting decision, but interviewers will notify respondents that answers to these questions are not obligatory.
An exit poll is a sociological survey of the voters at exits from the polling stations.
The exit poll was designed in the United States of America and used around the world to predict election results on election day. In Ukraine, the first exit poll was launched by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and presented on the TV show “Night of Elections” during the parliamentary elections in 1998. Since that time, exit polls have become an important tradition and element of the democratic electoral process. Since 2004, the Consortium has been conducting exit polls in the form of a “secret ballot", since it reduces the number of refusals and significantly increases the reliability of the exit poll data. Since 2010, the National Exit Poll in Ukraine is under the control of the Supervisory Board, which includes respected public figures, experts and journalists.
Members of the National Exit poll project are very experienced in conducting exit polls. DIF organized exit polls during parliamentary elections in 1998, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2012, 2014, two rounds of the presidential elections in 1999, three rounds of the presidential elections in 2004, two rounds in 2010, one round in 2014, and two rounds in 2019.
The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology joined the exit poll project in 1999 and Razumkov Center became its partner in 2004. For the 2019 parliamentary elections, the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation will conduct its 17th exit poll.