Maidan-December and Maidan-February: what has changed?
On Monday, February 3, 2014, Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation in cooperation with Kyiv International Institute of Sociology has conducted the poll at Maidan. 502 respondents participated in the poll in all permanent locations of Maidan (tents, the House of Trade Unions, the building of Kyiv City State Administration, October Palace, Ukrainian House, etc.) on sampling, which provided proportional scope of Maidan participants. The poll was made possible due to the funding provided by International Renaissance Foundation.
This was the third poll of Maidan participants. The first one was conducted by Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on week-end of December, 7-8, 2013. Total number of respondents is 1037 (375 people on December 7 and 662 people on December 8). The method, which provided random sampling of Maidan participants, was used. This was a numerous Maidan-meeting.
The second Maidan poll, as a permanent camp (Maidan-camp) was conducted by Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on Friday, December 20, 2013. Total number of respondents is 515, sampling represented all permanent locations of Maidan.
From Maidan-camp to Maidan-Sich: what has changed?
One and a half months passed since the poll in Maidan-camp. All this time was filled with the fierce confrontation between protesters and law enforcement structures – beatings, repressions, disappearance of people, and after passing the notorious laws on January 16 – real bloody fights at Grushevskogo street and first deaths of people. Maidan has drastically changed from outside – it bristled with barricades, tensed in constant expectation of an attack and became more closed. Maidan-camp has turned into Maidan-Sich.
What changes happened to population of Maidan? How did the sociodemographic structure change? Have the thoughts and requirements of these, more militarized people changed? We tried to find answers to these questions during our poll.
Thus, what is similar and what is different in these two stages of existence of stationary Maidan – “Maidan-camp” and “Maidan-Sich”?
- At Maidan-Sich, as earlier, the absolute predominance of men, at that it became even bigger: 88% are men and 12% are women. The age correlation almost did not change: the average age of Maidan-Sich inhabitant is 37 years old (33% of inhabitants aged 18 up to 29, 56% - 30-54 years old, 12% are 55 years old and older). The level of education shows that there are less people with higher education: formerly there were 49%, now there are 43% (however, this percentage is higher than average in the country), 43% of people have secondary and vocational school education, 9.5% have incomplete higher education and 4% - incomplete secondary school education.
- As to professional occupation of today’s Maidan-Sich inhabitants, as previously, there are predominantly specialists with higher education – 27% (formerly this index equaled 22%), the number of businessmen grew significantly (17% compared to 12% earlier), as earlier the workers make up 15%, there are less students (the number decreased from 10% to 6%) and pensioners (decreased from 11% to 7%). There are managers (4%), workers of law-enforcement agencies, military men (3%), clerks (4%), agricultural workers and farmers (3%). It is clear that there are people with no constant place of work (13%, of them 4.5% have odd jobs, and 7.5% do not have any sources of income).
- At the stationary Maidan-Sich, as earlier, visitors prevail (88%, formerly 81%), Kyivans make up 12%. Among visitors there are more inhabitants of the Western Ukraine – 55%, formerly 42%, the rest is from the Central Ukraine (24%), and from the South and the East (21%). Significant changes took place in prevailing types of settlement from where people came to Maidan: there are less inhabitants of regional centers (decreased from 32% to 20%) and big cities (from 23% to 17%), instead the number of inhabitants of smaller towns increased from 23% to 42%. As earlier, 20% of Maidan-Sich inhabitants are from villages.
- In regard to language the number of Ukrainian-speaking inhabitants grew from 52% up to 59%, the number of Russian-speaking inhabitants decreased (from 20% to 16%) as well as the number of bilingual inhabitants (from 28% to 24%).
- Among current inhabitants of Maidan-Sich there are less people brought to Kyiv in organized way by political parties (formerly 12%, today 3%), public organizations and movements brought 13%, and the rest 83.5% arrived to Maidan on their own. There are less party members in Maidan structure (there were 15%, today 8%), the number of members of public organizations did not change – 8%, and the number of people who belong to public movements increased significantly (there were 6%, today 14%). Probably, it is connected to the fact that different public movements appear at Maidan, and people join them right away. However, 70% of people, as earlier, do not belong to any alliances.
- Motives, that forced people not only to join Maidan but settle there, are the same as earlier: the first place is possessed by fierce repressions of the authorities against participants of protests (61%), however, the second is a general motive “the wish to change the life in the country” (today 51, formerly 36%). As earlier the important reasons for protests are the refusal of V. Yanukovitch to sign the Association Agreement with the EU (47%), and the wish to change the authorities of the country (46%). Only 3% of current Maidan inhabitants responded to opposition appeals; the “wish to take revenge upon the authorities for everything they do” does not overcome the stable 10%. Such reason as the feeling of insecurity that Ukraine will join the Customs Union and in general will turn towards Russia has grown from 14% up to 20%.
- During Maidan existence protesters’ main demands became more concentrated. These are: the resignation of Victor Yanukovitch and conducting snap Presidential elections (85%, the increase made up 20%) and release of all arrested Maidan participants, cessation of repressions (82%, the increase is 20%). The rest of requirements are also important, though to a smaller extent: resignation of the government (68%), initiation of criminal cases against those guilty in beatings of protests participants (64%), dismissal of Supreme Council and appointment of snap Parliamentary elections (59%), changes into Constitution, return to the Constitutional reform of 2004, which limited the powers of the President (62.5%), initiation of criminal cases against those involved in corruption (62%), signing the Association Agreement with the EU (49%), release of Yulia Tymoshenko (30%).
- Poll respondents were offered to determine three main minimum demands, the fulfillment of which can become a compromise with the authorities and satisfy Maidan. The replies showed that there are two such requirements: the resignation of Victor Yanukovitch and conducting snap Presidential elections (68%, the increase made up 36%) and release of arrested Maidan participants, cessation of repressions (51%, the increase is 20%). The rest of demands compared to these have the secondary significance.
- Participants of the current Maidan are less inclined to support the negotiations with the authorities - one and a half months ago the thoughts of Maidan participants were divided almost in half: 45% supported the necessity of negotiations and 47% did not support it. Today only 27% consider that the negotiations with the authorities are necessary, and 63% are against any negotiations.
- The Law on amnesty was negatively perceived at Maidan. Only 4% of respondents are ready to leave the building of State Administration and unblock Grushevskogo Street, and 83% of participants think that the authority should release the arrested activists without any additional conditions and demand immediate release of all protesters.
- Only 1% of protests participants positively evaluate the offer made by the President to the opposition leaders to head the government. 6% more consider that there is a possibility to accept this offer in case of formation of the government strictly of opposition representatives, 22% would accept this offer in case of the return to the Constitution of 2004 and strengthening the role of the Prime Minister and the government. However the majority – 62% - thinks that as soon as Victor Yanukovitch is a President it is impossible to anyhow participate in the government.
- Only 17% of respondents think that there is a need to provide Victor Yanukovitch with guarantees of the personal security and the preservation of the property if he agrees to conduct snap Presidential elections, 78% answer: “No guarantees!”
- As earlier, the absolute majority of Maidan participants (86%) are ready to stay at Maidan “for as long as the need be”. In fact, 73% of respondents arrived to Maidan last year, and 24% are there from the very beginning, on November 21-30, 2013. The fulfillment of all requirements can motivate people to leave Maidan – 83% of respondents endorse this notion (formerly 64% of respondents thought so), 12% more can be satisfied by the fulfillment of several main demands (formerly 25%), and only 1% of respondents thinks that it would be enough to fulfill at least something.
- During the month and a half the number of Maidan participants able to use radical protest methods have grown: boycotts, refusals to implement the decisions of the authorities (from 31% to 40%), unauthorized meetings and demonstrations (from 28% to 45%), strikes (from 32% to 47%), picketing state institutions (from 38% to 56%), seizure of buildings (from 19% to 41%), creation of armed formations independent from governmental structures (from 21% to 50%).
In general, the repeated poll of stationary Maidan participants showed that the authorities using their repressive policy have achieved the significant radicalization of Maidan, and its transformation from Maidan-camp into Maidan-Sich. The demand of Victor Yanukovitch’s resignation and snap Presidential elections has become the main one. It is obvious that the first and main requirement of Maidan is the last concession that Victor Yanukovitch can agree, as he is the only negotiator who really makes decisions. Maidan will not be satisfied with the opposition in the government of Victor Yanukovitch, the majority at Maidan is against the negotiations at all. The situation is worsened by the fact that the opposition does not control Maidan, which has grown spontaneously and today does not have the strict vertical structure. The determination of Maidan participants, the majority of which have come through the testing by the freezing cold, “to stand till the end” (and the bigger part of Maidan participants have been there since the last year), does not give a possibility to hope that Maidan somehow will “melt away as snow in spring”. The attempts to drive Maidan off using the force scenario, will obviously be met with the same force counteraction.
Poll results
What made you come to Maidan? (please, choose not more than 3 reasons)
| Maidan-meeting | Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
The refusal of V. Yanukovitch to sign the Association Agreement with the EU | 53.5 | 40 | 47.0 |
Fierce repressions of the authorities against protest participants | 69.6 | 69 | 61.3 |
Opposition leaders appeals | 5.4 | 6.7 | 2.8 |
The wish to change the authorities in the country | 39.1 | 38.9 | 45.6 |
The wish to change the life in the country | 49.9 | 36.2 | 51.1 |
The solidarity with friends, colleagues, relatives, who are also at Maidan | 6.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
Rollback of democracy, the threat of dictatorship | 18.9 | 13.7 | 17.5 |
It is fun and interesting at Maidan | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
The wish to take revenge upon the authorities for everything they do in the country | 5.2 | 9.6 | 9.8 |
The threat that Ukraine will join the Customs Union and in general will turn towards Russia | 16.9 | 14.4 | 20.0 |
Money that I was paid (was promised to be paid) | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Other (what exactly) | 3.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 |
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANSWER | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Which of the demands that were made at Maidan do you support? (mark all demands important for you)
| Maidan-meeting | Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
Release of detained Maidan participants, cessation of repressions | 81.8 | 63.9 | 82.2 |
Signing the Association Agreement with the EU | 71.0 | 58.6 | 49.0 |
Resignation of the government | 80.1 | 74.5 | 68.2 |
Initiation of criminal cases against those guilty in beatings of students at Maidan | 57.6 | 50.7 | 63.7 |
Dismissal of the Supreme Council and setting the date of snap Parliamentary elections | 55.6 | 51.4 | 59.1 |
Release of Yulia Tymoshenko | 37.8 | 36 | 30.4 |
Resignation of Victor Yanukovitch and conducting snap Presidential elections | 75.1 | 65.7 | 85.2 |
Changes in Constitution, return to the Constitutional reform of 2004, which limited the powers of the President | 37.9 | 42.8 | 62.5 |
Initiation of criminal cases against those involved in corruption | 49.6 | 42.8 | 62.1 |
General improvement of the level of living | 46.9 | 42.5 | 41.1 |
Other (what exactly) | 3.4 | 6.7 | 1.6 |
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANSWER | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The fulfillment of which main demands can be the compromise with the authorities that would satisfyMaidan? (mark not more than 3 main points)
| Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
Release of detained Maidan participants, cessation of repressions | 31.5 | 51.1 |
Signing the Association Agreement with the EU | 28.2 | 17.3 |
Resignation of the government | 55 | 28.0 |
Initiation of criminal cases against those guilty in beatings of students at Maidan | 11.5 | 23.6 |
Dismissal of the Supreme Council and setting the date of snap Parliamentary elections | 20.9 | 24.4 |
Release of Yulia Tymoshenko | 12.8 | 4.6 |
Resignation of Victor Yanukovitch and conducting snap Presidential elections | 32.8 | 68.2 |
Changes in Constitution, return to the Constitutional reform of 2004, which limited the powers of the President | 7.3 | 25.6 |
Initiation of criminal cases against those involved in corruption | 4 | 16.7 |
General improvement of the level of living | 5.2 | 7.2 |
Other (what exactly) | 3.6 | 0.7 |
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANSWER | 2 | 0 |
Do you agree with the proposition to conduct the negotiations round table with participation of theauthorities, the opposition and public leaders with the mediation of the international organizations?
| Maidan-meeting | Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
Yes, such negotiations are necessary | 51.3 | 45.3 | 27.4 |
There is no need to conduct any negotiations with the authorities | 41.5 | 46.6 | 63.1 |
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANSWER | 7.2 | 8.2 | 9.6 |
What can make you leave Maidan? (choose not more than 3 answers)
| Maidan-meeting | Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
Fulfillment of all demands made at Maidan | 73.9 | 63.6 | 82.7 |
Fulfillment of several main requirements | 28.5 | 24.8 | 11.7 |
Fulfillment of at least some of demands | 5.8 | 6.3 | 1.0 |
Objective reasons which do not allow to be at Maidan continuously (work, studying) | 16.5 | 4.5 | 3.6 |
Exhaustion, feeling sick | 13 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
Disappointment in leaders | 7.5 | 5.5 | 1.7 |
Cold weather | 2.3 | 1 | 0.6 |
Disappointment in ability of people to do something | 4.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Repressions against Maidan participants | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
If my friends and acquaintances will leave | 1.7 | 1 | 1.1 |
If the majority of participants will decide to do so | 12.8 | 9.8 | 9.5 |
Other (what exactly) | 2.3 | 5.1 | 2.2 |
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANSWER | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
In which actions of social protest are you ready to participate? (mark all acceptable answers)
| Maidan-meeting | Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
Participation in election campaign | 51.4 | 37.8 | 54.9 |
Collection of signatures under collective appeals (demands, calls) | 37.2 | 30 | 42.4 |
Authorized meetings and demonstrations | 70.7 | 51.8 | 56.3 |
Threat of the strike | 28.6 | 27 | 39.3 |
Boycott (refusal to fulfill decisions of administrations, authorities) | 35.8 | 30.9 | 40.2 |
Unauthorized meetings and demonstrations | 27.8 | 27.8 | 45.5 |
Participation in the strike | 42.7 | 31.8 | 46.6 |
Protest hunger-strike | 10.6 | 11.4 | 14.0 |
Picketing of state institutions, blocking their work | 35.4 | 38.5 | 56.0 |
Seizure of buildings | 13.8 | 19.5 | 41.0 |
Creation of armed units independent of authorities | 15 | 21.3 | 50.4 |
Other (what exactly) | 2.5 | 6 | 1.6 |
I am not ready to participate in any actions of mass protest | 2 | 2.1 | 3.4 |
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANSWER | 0.5 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
How, to your mind, should Maidan react on the Law on Amnesty of rebels participants, which will beimplemented after they abandon administrative buildings, Grushevskogo Street and automobile roads?
| Maidan-Sich |
To abandon the building of state administration, Grushevskogo Street for the sooner liberation of arrested activists and claim the release of prisoners afterwards | 3.9 |
To discard requirements made by the authorities for the release of the protesters and demand their liberation without any conditions | 82.7 |
It is difficult to decide unambiguously | 10.2 |
I do not know a lot about this Law and about the official terms of release of arrested protests participants | 3.2 |
Azarov’s government resigned and opposition leaders were offered to head the government. What do you think about that? ONE ANSWER
| Maidan-Sich |
I think that this offer is good, there is a need to accept it | 1.4 |
I think that there is a need to accept it only when the whole government will be made up of opposition representatives | 6.5 |
I think that it will be possible to accept it only after the return to the norms of the Constitution of 2004, with limited powers of the President and strengthening of the role of Prime Minister and the government | 22.1 |
I think that while Victor Yanukovitch is a President, it is impossible to participate in the government | 61.9 |
It is difficult to answer | 8.0 |
There are offers that to convince Victor Yanukovitch to consent conducting snap Presidentialelections, there is a need to provide him with guarantees of his personal security, the possibility tokeep Mezhygiria and other assets. What do you think about such offers?
| Maidan-Sich |
If Yanukovitch would agree to resign and conduct snap elections, such offer would be suitable | 16.6 |
No guarantees to Yanukovitch! | 78.0 |
It is difficult to say | 5.3 |
How long are you at Maidan?
| Maidan-Sich |
From the very beginning, November 21-30, 2013 | 24.2 |
From the first half of December 2013 | 35.5 |
From the second half of December 2013 | 13.7 |
From the first half of January 2014 | 12.1 |
From the second half of January 2014 | 8.7 |
Very recently, from yesterday or day before yesterday | 3.1 |
I am not all the time at Maidan, I visit from time to time | 2.7 |
For how long are you going to stay at Maidan?
| Maidan-Sich |
Only for today | 0.5 |
2-3 more days, not more | 0.6 |
Not more than a week | 1.7 |
Not more than 2 weeks | 1.9 |
Not more than a month | 2.0 |
For as long as it would be needed | 86.0 |
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANSWER | 7.1 |
Where are you from?
| Maidan-meeting | Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
Kyiv | 49.8 | 19.3 | 12.4 |
Came from the region | 50.2 | 80.7 | 87.6 |
If you are visiting, from what kind of location do you come from?
| Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
Regional center | 31.8 | 20.0 |
Big city (not less than 100.000 inhabitants) | 23 | 17.3 |
Small town (less than 100.000 inhabitants) | 23.4 | 42.4 |
Village | 21.8 | 20.3 |
If you are visiting, from which part of Ukraine do you come from? (oblasts were grouped into regions)
| Maidan-meeting | Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
Western Ukraine | 51.8 | 42.4 | 54.8 |
Central Ukraine | 30.9 | 34.4 | 23.0 |
Eastern and Southern Ukraine | 17.3 | 23.2 | 21.0 |
If you are visiting, was your journey organized or you traveled on your own?
| Maidan-meeting | Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
Organized – by one of the parties | 1.8 | 11.9 | 3.0 |
Organized – by one of public organizations (or movements) | 6.3 | 11.9 | 13.3 |
I came on my own | 91.9 | 76.1 | 83.5 |
Do you belong to one of the following unions: (it is possible to provide several answers)
| Maidan-meeting | Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
Yes, I am a party member | 3.9 | 14.9 | 7.7 |
Yes, I am a member of public organization | 3.5 | 8.9 | 8.4 |
Yes, I am a member of public movement | 1.2 | 5.9 | 14.2 |
I do not belong to any unions | 91.8 | 70.4 | 69.9 |
Sociodemographic structure
Gender
| Maidan-meeting | Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
Male | 57.2 | 85.1 | 88.2 |
Female | 42.8 | 14.9 | 11.8 |
Age
| Maidan-meeting | Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
15–29 years old | 38 | 34.1 | 33.2 |
30–54 years old | 49 | 52.0 | 56.0 |
55 years and older | 13 | 13.9 | 10.8 |
Education
| Maidan-meeting | Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
Incomplete secondary school | 0.8 | 2.2 | 4.3 |
Secondary and vocational school | 22.1 | 38.9 | 43.1 |
Incomplete higher education (student) | 14.4 | 10.3 | 9.5 |
Higher education | 62.7 | 48.7 | 43.1 |
Occupation
| Maidan-meeting | Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
Manager (deputy manager) of the enterprise, institution, department | 8.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
Specialist (with higher or vocational education) | 39.5 | 21.7 | 26.7 |
Worker of law enforcement agencies, military man | 1.4 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
Entrepreneur (businessman) | 9.3 | 12.3 | 17.4 |
Clerk of servitorial staff (without special education) | 2.4 | 2 | 4.2 |
Worker | 6.7 | 14.4 | 15.2 |
Agricultural worker, farmer | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
Pupil | 0.4 | 1.1 | – |
Student | 13.2 | 10.1 | 6.2 |
Non-working pensioner | 9.4 | 11.2 | 7.4 |
Housewife | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
I do not have permanent employment, but have several odd jobs | 3.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 |
I am temporarily unemployed and do not have any sources of income | 2.4 | 7.7 | 8.5 |
Other | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
What language do you mainly speak at home?
| Maidan-meeting | Maidan-camp | Maidan-Sich |
Russian | 25.9 | 19.6 | 15.6 |
Ukrainian | 54.6 | 52.5 | 59.0 |
Both Russian and Ukrainian | 18.6 | 27.6 | 24.0 |
Other | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANSWER | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 |
