Elections-2014: Expectations of citizens, ratings of candidates, and motivation of choice

National public opinion poll was conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation together with  Razumkov Centre  in the period between May 14 -18, 2014. Survey was conducted in all regions of Ukraine, except for Crimea. 2011 respondents were questioned according the sample representative for all the population older than 18 years. Statistical error doesn’t exceed 2.3%.

Survey was conducted in the framework of “Public Sociological Consortium” project with financial support of the European Union.

•  79% of Ukrainians express their readiness to vote in presidential elections: 60% of them say “definitely, yes” and 19% – “rather, yes”.  Readiness to participate in elections differs from region to region. The highest readiness is demonstrated in the Western and Central regions, where only 6% and 8% say, they won’t vote at elections. The lowest readiness is in the Eastern and Southern regions, where 14% and 20% of voters are not going to vote respectively.  The highest number of those, who is not going to participate in elections is found in Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk regions) – 51% of population of the region.
• The main reasons for  participation in elections  voters  consider their  civic duty (57%),  followed by  understanding  elections as opportunity to  influence  situation in Ukraine  (26.5%) and fears, that in the case of non-voting  their voice would  be used for falsifications (23.5%). Refusal to participate  in voting  citizens explain first of all  by the fact, that they don’t  see  any adequate candidate to vote for  (51% of those, who  refuse  to vote in elections) and lack of belief, that these elections will be  conducted fairly (18%).   
• Leader of pre-election race is Petro Poroshenko who is supported by 44.6% of those, who will participate in elections. 8,4%  are ready to vote for Yuliya Tymoshenko, 7,5% – for Anatoliy  Hrytsenko, 7,0% – for  Serhiy Tigipko, 5,4%  for  Oleh Lyashko, 3,1% – for Petro Symonenko, 2,6% – for Mykhaylo Dobkin, 1,7% – for Olha Bohomolets, 1,6% – for  Vadym Rabinovych. Other candidates have less than 1% of support.  15% of those, who is going to vote in elections, haven’t decided yet, whom to vote for.
• Petro Poroshenko is a leader in all regions of Ukraine except for Donbas. In the Western region Petro Poroshenko gets 53,1%, Anatoliy Hrytsenko – 8,6%, Yuliya Tymoshenko – 7,9% of votes. In the Central region Petro Poroshenko  receives 47,5%, Yuliya Tymoshenko – 10,5%, Anatoliy Hrytsenko – 6,3% of  votes; in the South  support to Petro Poroshenko is  26,5%, to Serhiy Tigipko – 11,6%, to Yuliya Tymoshenko – 6,0%; in the Eastern region Petro Poroshenko receives 25,9%, Mykhaylo Dobkin – 8,4%, Serhiy Tigipko – 7,3%. In Donbas 64% of citizens will not participate in election at all or haven’t made their choice about concrete candidate yet.  Relative majority of votes there belongs to Serhiy Tigipko (9,9%) and Petro Symonenko (8,1%).
• Among the main reasons  for voting for Petro Poroshenko  his voters  mention, that he “sees  real ways  of overcoming economic crisis and  providing  economic growth of the country” (52%), his “ideas and propositions are close to his  voters” (49%), and that he will “ manage to unite  citizens  from all regions and overcome split of  Ukraine” (34%).
•  The main  reasons  for  voting for Yuliya Tymoshenko is  the fact, that she “sees  real ways  of overcoming economic crisis and  providing  economic growth of the country”  (56%),  her “ideas and propositions are close to her voters” (56%),  and that she  has “the best team  of professionals, able to guarantee  development and order in the state” (50%).
• The main causes  to vote for Anatoliy Hrytsenko for his  voters  is that he “sees  real ways  of overcoming economic crisis and  providing  economic growth of the country” (63%), his ability “to resist  Russia’s aggression and guarantee  independence  and security of Ukraine”   (46%) and that he is “least of all involved in corruption  and other  dishonorable actions”  (40.5%).
• The main motives to vote for Serhiy Tigipko for his voters is that his “ideas and propositions are close to his voters” (56%), he “sees real ways of overcoming economic crisis and providing economic growth of the country” (43%), he has “the best strategy of the future of our country” (45%).
• Regarding differences in reasons for voting for different candidates,   it is worth mentioning, that   reason of attractiveness of personality of the candidate is the strongest among Yuliya Tymoshenko’s voters (45%). It is also her voters, who believe, that their candidate will take care of people (30%) and it is she, to her voter’s point of view, who is able to resist Russia’s aggression and ensure independence of Ukraine (40%). At the same time 20% of Yuliya Tymoshenko’s supporters are ready to vote for her just because they have been constantly voting for Tymoshenko. Voters consider Petro Poroshenko (34%) and Anatoliy Hrytsenko (46%) to be candidates, able to unite people and overcome the split of Ukraine.  Besides of that, Anatoliy Hrytsenko is the only one candidate who is considered by 40,5%  of his voters to be least of all candidates involved in corruption  and other  dishonorable actions.  Motive to vote for the person as for “lesser evil” in comparison to other candidates, is the most pronounced among voters of Petro Poroshenko (24.5%) and Serhiy Tigipko (19%).
• If the second round of the elections takes place and Petro Poroshenko and Yuliya Tymoshenko enters it, Petro Poroshenko will win (Poroshenko will take 52.2% of votes, Tymoshenko – 9.9%; 12.6% haven’t yet decided and 25% won’t participate in the voting). If Petro Poroshenko is joined by Serhiy Tihipko, he will also win (Poroshenko – 56.1%, Tihipko – 12.2%; 11.2% haven’t yet decided and 20.6% won’t participate).
• Majority of population – 58% – believe that the elections will help to improve situation in Ukraine. 21% think that the elections won’t change anything and only 4.5% fear that the elections will make things worse.
• Majority of population also believe that their participation or refusal to participate will either definitely have impact on the future of Ukraine (20%) or will at least have some impact (42%). 32% of population don’t expect any impact. Inhabitants of Western regions are the most optimistic in this regard – 81% of them expect that their choice will influence the future of the country. 71% of respondents from Central and 62% of respondents from Eastern Ukraine share such opinion. Southern Ukrainians are more skeptical: only 44% believe that they can influence the situation of Ukraine through elections, while 56% – don’t. Ukrainians from Donbas region are the most pessimistic, as only 30% expect to influence the current situation in Ukraine through the elections, while 68% don’t believe in such possibility.
• Majority of Ukrainian population believe that the presidential elections will be conduced either in completely free and fair manner (9%) or with some irregularities which, however, won’t influence the final result (45%). However, total of more than a third suppose that either the results may be distorted (32%) or the results will be definitely falsified (11%).
• Among all electoral observers, Ukrainians perceive activities of Western observing missions to be the most useful (49%). Ukrainian observers from NGOs are trusted by 37.5% citizens, Ukrainian observers from parties – 32%, foreign observers from CIS states – 22%. 13% consider all observers to be useless.
• Absolute majority of Ukrainian population – 85% – think that financial sources of electoral funds of presidential candidates should be open. Only 6% disagree. 41% of respondents consider knowing the sources and spendings of electoral funds to be very important, and 41% more – rather important. 9.5% deem it to be not very important, and 3% – not important at all.
• At the same time, if a given presidential candidate opens information on sources and spendings of his/her electoral fund, only 11% of population would be ready to financially support such candidate.

Public opinion poll results

1.   Are you going to vote in the presidential elections, which will take place on May, 25 2014?

2.   If you are not going to vote in elections, then why? (% of those, who is not going to participate in voting)

3.   If you are going to vote in elections, then why? (% of those, who is going to participate in voting)

4.   If you are going vote in presidential election, then who will you vote for? (% of those, who is going to participate in voting)

4.1. If you are going vote in presidential election, then who will you  vote for? (%  of those, who is going to participate in voting)

 5.   Why have you decided to vote exactly for this candidate? Choose no more than 5 variants of answers 

6.   If Petro Poroshenko and Yuliya Tymoshenko enter the second round of the elections, who wouldyou vote for?

6.1   If Petro Poroshenko and Yuliya Tymoshenko enter the second round of the elections, who wouldyou vote for?

7. If Petro Poroshenko and Serhiy Tihipko enter the second round of the elections, who would youvote for?

7. 1. If Petro Poroshenko and Serhiy Tihipko enter the second round of the elections, who would youvote for?

8. Do you think that the presidential elections will help to improve situation in Ukraine? 

1. How, do you think, will the elections be held? 

10.   Do you think that your personal participation or refusal to participate in the presidential electionswill have impact on Ukraine’s future?

11. On the election day, the course of voting will be controlled by electoral observers. According to your opinion, whose activities will be the most helpful? (number of answers is unlimited)

12.  Do you think that financial sources of electoral funds of presidential candidates should be open?

13. Do you consider it important to know the financial sources of electoral campaign of a givencandidate and ways of their spending during presidential elections?

14.  Are you ready to financially support a given presidential candidate if he/she opens informationabout sources and spendings of his/her electoral fund?