Donbas poll finds support for united Ukraine
Irina, 42, cries in front of her shop that was hit by shelling on September 15th in the Kievsky district of Donetsk. With the ongoing internal conflicts between separatists and a poor economy, support for a united Ukraine will increase, experts said. [AFP]
Despite ongoing Russian propaganda and threats from separatists, polling conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology and the Democratic Initiatives Foundation showed that 42.2 percent of Donbas residents want to stay in Ukraine.
The polling also found residents support wider rights for their region and only 25.9 percent of respondents support the self-recognised Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LNR).
"Prior to the events that took place this spring we could not even realise and talk about what people in Donbas want -- to be separated from Ukraine or join some other formations," Oleksii Sydorchuk, analyst at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, told SETimes. "There has always been a strong regional identity in Donbas. People born in Donetsk and Luhansk regions always identified themselves with Donbas. It is very difficult to change the identity, but attitudes to political configurations change rapidly. It depends on what is happening."
Volodymyr Gorbach, an analyst at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Co-operation, said 40 percent of Donbas residents identified themselves as ethnic Russians in the 2001 census.
"While discussing the poll results, it is also important to realise that a majority of the population there receives information from Russian sources and most of them have never left their territory and travelled elsewhere," Gorbach said.
Despite all these factors, the idea to turn Donbas into the independent republic did not garner much support from the local population. Separatists constantly complained in video messages about the lack of locals who would like to join the so-called militia.
Donbas' independence was imposed by Russian propaganda and supported by guns, said Andriy Strannikov, director of the Kyiv-based Institute of Political Education.
"When there is a truce in Donbas we will see a picture where there is no one to fight against, there is no external enemy," Strannikov told SETimes. "They [separatists] will start searching for opponents within. Witnesses say that terrorists have started fighting against each other."
With the ongoing internal conflicts among separatists and poor financial support, despite promises from the Kremlin, pro-Ukrainian moods in Donbas can only continue growing, experts said.
"Over the last few months there were weapon supply lines and external funding for territories controlled by separatists," Sydorchuk said. "It is a big problem for these so-called republics. This funding is not permanent. Russia will not be thrilled about financing this region. Now they think about sanctions and how to deal with annexed Crimea."
"I think such a background will change the mood of the local population towards a pro-Ukrainian position," Strannikov said.
Destroyed infrastructure, the onset of cold weather and the inability to obtain social payments can soon cause protests and even provoke revolt against the leaders of the self-proclaimed republics, experts said.
"Demonstrations or meetings were very rarely a form of protest in Donbas," Strannikov said. "The phenomenon of this region is that people here always think that the state protects them in exchange for them working. But now, there is no work and there is an unclear state, so people in Donbas will logically ask why they need such a state as DNR or LNR."
