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Focus on Ukraine, May 31-June 6, 2010, THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF YANUKOVYCH: 2.7 ON A SCALE OF 10 AS PRESIDENT

June 7, 2010
Focus on Ukraine


Focus on Ukraine May 31 – June 6, 2010 (PDF format)

 І. OVERVIEWS OF POLITICAL EVENTS OF THE WEEK

May 31

Before setting the date for elections to local councils the Verkhovna Rada must approved the corresponding amendments to the Constitution. Deputy Chair of the Central Election Commission Andriy Mahera stated this when commenting on the possibility of setting elections to local councils for October 31.

“The next elections to local councils can be set, but on condition that changes to the Constitution that would allow the possibility of holding general local elections. Such routine elections can only be held only in those districts where snap elections not held after 2006,” said Mahera.

In the event that dates of local elections are set without introducing amendments to the Constitution, the elections to the Kyiv Local Council, the Kyiv mayor and to the Ternopil Oblast Council will not be held.

At the same time, Mahera feels that the only constitutional date for holding local elections was May 30, 2010 in accordance with a resolution of the Verkhovna Rada. “Unfortunately, the resolution was abrogated. Such a decision was imprudent on the part of the parliament, Mahera concluded.”

June 1

The National Security and Defense Council passed a new bill on the priniciples of domestic and foreign policy of Ukraine.
Among the main principles are: guaranteeing full-fledge participation of Ukraine in general European and regional systems of collective security, gaining membership in the European Union preserving good neighbor relations and strategic partnership with Russia, other countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States and other countries of the world.

At a meeting of the NSDC, President Viktor Yanukovych stated: “In the bill we clearly define the highest priority of the European strategic course of Ukraine.” Meanwhile, the clause about NATO membership was removed from the bill.

The NSDC recommended the president submit said bill to the Verkhovna Rada for urgent condsideration. President Yanukovych signed the bill and submitted it the parliament. VR Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn requested the specialized committees to prepare the bill for review by the parliament next Thursday.

Chair of the VR National Security Committee Anatoliy Hrytsenko is distraught by the rushed work, arguing that properly drafted “strategic laws” are not passed in a day. Hrytsenko also said a legal administration prepared to draw expert conclusions regarding such an important document in 24 hours must be dispersed. Hrytsenko proposed going public with this bill in order that it can be discussed by experts and the general public.

The publication Ekonomichna Pravda presented it routine rating of 25 of the largest banks in Ukraine. The rating is based on the results of a survey of the most influential investment companies. Besides surveying analysts, EP invited a high-standing official of the NBU oversight division to work on the rating. The banks were evaluated according to the following criteria: Quality of Loan Portfolios, Level of Wrok with Clients, Quality and Loyalty of the Client Base, Image, Professional Level of Management, Level of Mother Company Support, Strategy of Operating on the Market and Current Financial Stability. In the opinion of experts, the most stable bank is ING Bank Ukraine. VTB, Unicredit Bank, UkrSocBank and the affiliate bank of Sberbank Russia in Ukraine.

June 2

The party of ex-president Viktor Yushchenko Our Ukraine requested President Viktor Yanukovych and the NSDC to immediately reconsider its decision on excluding the clause about Ukraine’s membership in NATO from the bill on the principles of domestic and foreign policy.

In the opinion of members of Our Ukraine, by striking the clauses on NATO integration from the bill Yanukovych and his team are putting under threat the sovereignty and security of Ukrain, which is incapable of guaranteeing itself the necessary level of defense security on its own “taking into account the insufficient level of financing of the Ukrainian army”. Also, in the event of accession to NATO, “Ukraine will not be an element of provocation in calls to review the status of Sevastopol and the Crimean peninsula or create tension around the Tuzla spit”.

President Viktor Yanukovych announced the start of the first stage of economic reforms in Ukraine by presenting the corresponding program. The first goal of the program is for Ukraine to join the top 20 most developed countries in the world in 10 years. As a result of the reforms, the standard of living in Ukraine must correspond to European standards.

“We will lower the national budget deficit, stabilize the national debt, ease the tax burden and expand the tax base. We will lower inflation, ensure crediting of the economy and development of the financial markets and increase the financial and expenditure autonomy in the regions,” Yanukovych assured.

“One of the important components of the success of regorms is achieving an annual pace of GDP growth of no less than 5%. By 2014 we will lower inflation from 13% to 6%. These reforms will not be conducted at the expense of unprotected categories of citizens,” the president underscored. Finally, Yanukovych promised to stimulate the development of free trade with the EU, which will foster rapid introduction of a visa-free regime with European countries.

Ukraine lacks highly qualified managers and suffers from a serious shortage of young specialists. The situation will not improve in the foreseeable future, mainly due to the demographic situation in the country. Director of ANKOR in Ukraine Yevhen Delov made this statement. ANKOR works on the recruitment and personnel consulting market.

“In colleges in Ukraine the number of available spots exceeds the number of students. For this reason, the forecast is not too gratifying and we predict a shortage of young personnel over the next year,” the expert said.
On this backdrop, the main trend in the coming years will be an increase in demand for outsourcing, meaning delegating non-specialized forms of activity, partial downsizing of company staff and transferring a part of the subdivisions of companies from the center to the regions,” experts forecast.

June 3

MP Taras Stetskiv of the OU-PSD faction said in a live broadcast on Radio Era-FM that the opposition in the Verkhovna Rada has been removed from legislative activity. “For the most part, we in the current parliament are statists. Regardless of what we say from the rostrum and no matter what arguments we may make, an ironclad voting machine in the parliament that is running smoothly and there are “button pushers” from three factions, including defectors. Even without carefully reading the text in laws, they will exist and will give 245 votes from the team of Chechetov (MP of the Party of Regions) for any decision proposed by the PoR. In Stetskiv’s opinion, in such a situation debates in parliament have lost their meaning.

he VR passed in the first reading the bill “On the Prinicples of Domestic and Foreign Policy” put up for consideration by President Viktor Yanukovych. 253 MPs of 430 registered in the hall voted in favor of the corresponding decision.

On the occasion of 100 days in the office of president Viktory Yanukovych addressed the Ukrainian people. Yanukovych expressed his opinion “about the consequences of the destructive policy of the previous government and looking to the future, namely how will we modernized the country and what model of development of our state will be applied”. “The internal war we witnessed for 5 years will be no longer. I would also like to assure all skeptics and critics. Oligarchs, lobbyists and other groups of influence will be standing in a general line. I will not allow any outside influence on state decisions. The times of wild capitalism ended with the 2010 elections”. Yanukovych promised to build democracy, realize Ukraine’s European choice and undertake fundamental reforms in practically all spheres.

The majority of opposition MPs did not show up for a ceremonial convocation. The opposition does not believe in the embodiment of presidential slogans. The opposition affirms that the first 100 days of the new president were characterized by unfulfilled promises, in particular regarding social programs (i.e. wage increases and pension guarantees), encroachment on the indendence of judges and oppression of democratic processes.
Serhiy Sobolev (premier of the opposition government) said, “This is basically the creation of favorable conditions for only one category of our citizens, namely those that financed the election campaign of Viktor Yanukovych and those that today represent big business and basically run the state”.

June 4

On the occasion of 100 days of being in office, President Viktor Yanukovych met with representatives of central, regional and foreign mass media during a press conference in the Ukraine House.
The president stated his readiness to cooperate with journalists to preclude the possibility of any manifestations of censorship in Ukraine. He said, “I want to cooperate with you and together with you seek ways of uprooting oppression of freedom of speech if it exists.”

Yanukovych also guaranteed that if he receives facts of manifestations of censorship, he will assign the appropriate competent bodies to conduct an investigation into such facts.

Radio Svoboda informed that the co-editor of the Worst of the Worst of 2010: Most Representive Societies Report Arch Paddington said Ukraine may lose its status of a free country in the classification of the Freedom House organization.

Paddington noted: “We are concerned about the development of events in Ukraine. This country belongs to the category of free countries, albeit free countries with problems. For this reason, if there is even a slight worsening of the situation, Ukraine will be relegated to the category of “partially free countries”.


II. ANALYTICAL REFERENCE

THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF YANUKOVYCH: 2.7 ON A SCALE OF 10 AS PRESIDENT

June 4, 2010 marked the first 100 days of President Viktor Yanukovych in office. The president his annual state-of-the nation address to the Ukrainian people in which he expressed his opinion “about the consequences of the destructive policy of the previous government and shared his view of “how will we modernize the country and what model of the development of our state will be applied”.

President Viktor Yanukovych assumed the post of president with a new program, not exactly a new team and a rather enigmatic tactic. Unlike his forerunner Viktor Yushchenko, the new president’s first visit was to Brussels. However, in the first 100 days in office Yanukovych managed to meet seven times with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, thereby recommending himself as a vassal of Moscow. Yanukovych stated that Ukraine will conduct a policy of a neutral state and is currently drafting a legislative base to reinforce such a status. The Ukrainian president submitted to parliament a bill on the principles of domestic and foreign policy from which the clause on NATO membership was stricken. At the same time, the president stressed that the priority for Ukraine is gaining membership in the European Union and promises that by the end of the year he will manage to achieve a visa-free regime with Schengen countries.

What are the positive and negative aspects of the first steps of Viktor Yanukovych as president and what may be the consequences of his actions?

The Democratic Initiatives Foundation conducted a monitoring of the first 100 days of the new president in office in which it tracked his actions and agreements. In order to assess the actions of.President Viktor Yanukovych in his first 100 days in office, the Democratic Initiatives Foundation conducted a polling of experts from May 24-31 on the topic “100 Days of President Yanukovych” . The objective of the polling was to clarify the opinion of the expert community on the first steps of the newly elected president. One of the criteria of the assessment was Article 1 of the Constitution of Ukraine in which Ukraine is defined as “a sovereign, independent, democratic and socially oriented legal state”. To what degree do the first steps of the president bring Ukraine closer to this status? A total of 19 leading Ukrainian political scientists and political observers responded to a total of 19 questions.

On the whole, the experts surveyed gave extremely negative assessments of the first actions of President Viktor Yanukovych. The average assessment was 2.7 points on a scale of 0-10 with the highest assessment being 10.

The experts negatively assessed the following actions of the president (by degree of significance/the number of mentions):

– Signing of the Kharkiv Treaty with Russia
– Formation of the government and staff appointments
– Statements of the president regarding the neutral status of Ukraine and the country has no future in the Euro-Atlantic bloc
– The president’s support of the actions of the Party of Regions faction in forming a coalition with separate independent deputies in the Verkhovna Rada
– Actions of the president in the humanitarian sphere
– Absence of a systemic view of imperative reforms
– Imitation of fighting corruption
– Illegal nature of actions and constant ignoring of the Constitution and the laws of Ukraine
– Monopolization of influence on the courts
– Organizing the construction of a hunting ground for Yanukovych in Sukholuchchi

Among the positive actions the experts assessed are the following (by degree of significance):

– Signing agreements on the demarcation of the Russian-Ukrainian border
– Renewal of manageability of the system of state power
– Statement of the president about the priority of European integration
– Signing of the Law on the National Budget for 2010
– Creation of the Committee for Economic Reforms under the President of Ukraine
Ambiguous

The opinions of experts were split as to the positive and negative consequences of Ukraine surrendering its arsenal of enriched uranium

NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES OF THE PRESIDENT’S ACTIONS

Signing of the Kharkiv Treaty between Ukraine and Russia has the following negative consequences:
– Drawing Ukraine into the geopolitical orbit of Russia, expansion of the possibilities of Russian expansion into Ukraine, creation of a platform for the financial and media influence of Russia and the strengthening the psychological dependence on Russia;
– Probability of enhancement of separatist moods in Crimea;
– Reweighing the interest of business groups that created the financial groundwork of the presidential campaign above the interests of Ukraine’s sovereignty and demonstration of readiness to sacrifice strategic interests for short-term material gains.
Only one expert gave a positive assessment of the Kharkiv agreements, arguing that they fostered the normalization of relations with Russia, which is extremely critical for the revival of Ukraine’s economy. Moreover, in his opinion harmonization with Russia will lead to the start of intense dialog with the EU and the U.S. and greater attention to Ukraine’s inquiries. Two experts noted both positive and negative factors in the agreements..

Formation of the government and staff appointments – нthe negative consequences of the formation of the government and staff appointments are seen in the following:
– The fiscal bloc has strong representation in the government, while that of the reform bloc is weakу; execution of tactical tasks of survival while strategy is ignored;
– Appointment of individuals as ministers and committee chairs that are not experts in those areas these bodies work in (Tsushko, Mogyliov, Volha, etc.);
– Staff appointments in law enforcement and humanitarian spheres cause great concern in society and are dividing the country;
– Comprehensive “housecleaning” of staff weaken the bureaucratic machinery;
– Building the staff vertical of the government in the interests of a single political force.

Experts noted that in the international aspects, government and other staff appointments negative influence the authority and image of Ukraine and the appointments in the humanitarian sphere are distancing Ukraine from Europe and bringing it closer Russia

The statements of the president about the neutral status of Ukraine and the absence of Euro-Atlantic prospects in the global context mean the distancing of Ukraine from the West and its harmonization with Russia.

Absence of a systemic view of imperative reforms. In the global context, the absence of a systemic view of imperative reforms leads to distrust in Ukraine of its western partners. This specifically applies to complications with receiving loans from the IMF.

POSITIVE CONSEQUENCES OF THE ACTIONS OF THE PRESIDENT

Signing of agreements on the demarcation of the Russian-Ukrainian border. In the international context, the signing of agreements on the demarcation of the Russian-Ukrainian border improves the image of Ukraine as an independent state and will foster progress in signing of agreements on a visa-free regime with the EU. At the same time, one expert noted the ambiguity of these agreements seeing as there exists a threat that Ukraine may lose the shelf in the Kerch Strait.

Renewal of the manageability of the system of state power. In the international context, ensuring the effective work of the government will create conditions for it gaining the support of its international partners. One expert assesses the creation of a stringent power vertical as negative, believing this to be a rejection of democratic achievements in 2004.

ЗStatement of the president on the priority of European integration made in Brussels on March 1, 2010. The positive consequence of this statement is that it is viewed as a positive signal to the EU.

CONCLUSIONS

The political honeymoon of Viktor Yanukovych is over, the first steps of the new president elicit the dissatisfaction of society at large and low assessments on the part of the experts community, life has not improved for the average citizen and the country’s foreign policy has gone through a correlation.

Can Viktor Yanukovych pass through the evolution as did the former president of Poland Alexander Kwasniewski, who managed to go down in the country’s history as positive political figure in the throes of negative expectations of the people? Answering this question would be premature at this point in time, but it can be concluded that the first steps of the president of Ukraine are somewhat contradictory.

In his election campaign Viktor Yanukovych promised to build a successful and strong Ukraine. ГThe main thing is for Article 1 of the Constitution of Ukraine, in which Ukraine is defined as a “sovereign, independent, democratic and socially legitimate state”, remain in tact and relevant to ensure that Ukraine is indeed successful and strong in the future.

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“Focus on Ukraine” – a weekly publication of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation that offers insight into the main political events in Ukraine, as well as commentary and recommendations of experts in a narrow field.

This publication is party of a project that is realized with the support of UNITER. The content of the publication is the property of DIF and does not necessarily reflect the thoughts and opinions of UNITER.

Experts:
Iryna Bekeshkina
Volodymyr Kukhar
Natalya Yakymchuk

The following people worked on this publication:
Editor-in-chief: Iryna Filipchuk
Project Coordinator: Natalya Yakymchuk

 

 



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