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Focus on Ukraine, June 14 - 20, 2010

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І. Overviews of political events of the week

Representatives of youth organizations picketed the Verkhovna Rada against the Law “On Peaceful Demonstrations by Citizens”. The protesters demanded holding civil hearins and postponing the consideration of a bill that considerably limits the rights of citizens to organize demonstrations and contradicts the European Convention of Human Rights.

VR Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn proposed carrying over debate of the bill on holding peaceful demonstrations. The speaker said this issue is not relevant at the moment. Lytvyn also recalled that this bill was submitted to the parliament for consideration during the former presidency. Today, the head of the VR says this bill should be considered taking into account the new realities.

Deputy Chair of the VR Committee on Issues of Freedom of Speech and Information Andiry Shevchenko informed that the committee will review the situation with two Ukrainian TV channels – Channel 5 and TVi.

As a reminder, the Kyiv District Administrative Court satisfied the demands of the Inter group of TV channels and stripped additional frequencies of Channel 5 and TVi.

СThe Stockholm Arbitration Tribunal obligated Naftogaz Ukrainy to return 11 billion cubic meters of gas to the RosUkrEnergo company and give the company 1.1 bn cu. m. of gas as compensation. Minister of Fuel and Energy of Ukraine Yuriy Boiko said this ruling cannot be fulfilled.

Minister of Fuel and Energy of Yuriy Boiko stated that Ukraine wants to form an international consortium on developing petroleum and gas deposits in the Ukrainian part of the Black Sea shelf. Boiko said the Ukrainian side has already drafted a corresponding program and invited American companies to cooperation.

Former premier, minister of defense and head of the Our Ukraine local party organization Yuriy Yekhanurov said the OU-PSD faction may raise the issue of joining the Stability and Order coalition this fall.

Yekhanurov said the greatest mistake of the OU-PSD faction was allowing the Communists into power and assures that if the faction members agree to getting down to brass tacks, this fall they can apply for joining the coalition and expelling the Communists.

Leader of the Party of Regions faction Oleksandr Yefremov said today there is no talk about changes in the format of the coalition. Such was his response to the statement of member of the Our Ukraine party Yuriy Yekhanurov about the possibility of OU joining the coalition instead of the Communist Party. Yefremov said such prevocational statements are ungrounded and that the coalition has been formed and everybody values the work of this coalition.

June 16

Premier Mykola Azarov expressed his hope that next year Ukraine and the European Union will agree on a visa-free regime. He hopes that in November at the scheduled Ukraine-EU Summit the plan of action opening the door for the Ukrainian government to sign this agreement will be approved. Azarov said Kyiv will fulfill all requirements for this within a year. 

June 17

First Vice Speaker of the VR Adam Martyniuk announced at a parliamentary meeting that the VR postponed considering the forming of a commission to investigate censorship and the legality of issuing frequencies to television channels for an indefinite period. He noted that both bills were not submitted according to protocol and without the approval of the committee’s members.

Prosecutor General Oleksandr Medvedko informed that the level of crime in Ukraine triple in the first five months of 2010.  Besides that, he informed that in July-August the pre-court investigation into the Gongadze affair will be completed.

President Viktor Yanukovych called for strict measures against application of pressure on the mass media when responding to journalists’ questions in Sumy.

June 18

VR Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn informed that six members of the Our Ukraine – People’s Self-defense faction joined the Stability and Reform coalition.

Among the new members of the coalition are David Zhvania, Valeriy Borisov, Serhiy Kharovskiy, Volodymyr Marushchenko, Oleh Novikov and Viktor Shemchuk. Today, the Stability and Reform party has 257 members, among which are 20 members of BYuT and 14 members of the OU-PSD faction. 

Most Ukrainians positively assess the first 100 days of the activity of the new government. According to the results of a public opinion poll conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov Centre dedicated to the first 100 days of the new government,54% of the surveyed population gave a positive assessment of the performance of President Viktor Yanukovych, 24% gave a negative assessment, 49% of the surveyed gave a positive assessment of the work of Premier Mykola Azarov, 29% gave a negative assessment, 39% of the surveyed positively assessed the work of VR Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn and 34% gave a negative assessment.

ІI. Analytical Reference

• Democratic institutions and governance

100 DAYS OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT:
HIGH ASSESSMENTS AND GREAT EXPECTATIONS

In early June 2010 the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov Centre conducted a public opinion poll in Ukraine. The foundation also conducted an expert survey to evaluate the performance of the new government of Ukraine. Similar polls and surveys were conducted in March 2005 to evaluate the performance of the “orange” government under President Viktor Yushchenko.

Experts surveyed graded the actions and performance of the new government at 3.9 points on a 10-point grading scale. The positive assessments of the government after Viktor Yanukovych was elected into office were higher: 54% of the people gave a positive assessment of the performance of Viktor Yushchenko in his first 100 days in office, while 14.5% gave a negative assessment. The performance of the government of Yulia Tymoshenko was rate positive by 54% of the surveyed and negative by 16.5%. The performance of VR Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn was rated positive by 49% of the surveyed and negative by 12%. Experts gave higher ratings of the performance of the new government: 5.8 points on a 10-point scale.

The majority of Ukrainians believe that newly elected President Viktor Yanukovych is fulfilling his promises made during the elections (18% are confident of this and another 41% have hope). In 2005, the majority of Ukrainians (66%) had similar hopes in the newly elected president Viktor Yushchenko.

41% of Ukrainians consider that the country is heading in the right direction, while 32% have the opposite.opinion. For comparison, in March 2005 these figures were 47% and 21% respectively.

In September 2005, these figures were diametrically opposed: 21% of the surveyed believed the country was heading in the right direction, while 44% of the surveyed believed the country was developing in the wrong direction.

The population of Ukraine for the most part positively assessed the steps of the new government such as the Kharkiv Agreements (55% positive and 34% negative), changes in foreign policy orientation from the EU to Russia (53% positive and 28% negative), changes in the criteria for acceptance to higher learning institutions, (47% positive and 22% negative), forming a majority coalition in the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) not only from the factions, but also independent MPs (45% positive, 28% negative), appointments of members of the Cabinet of Ministers (45% positive, 28% negative, appointment of heads of provincial state administrations (42% positive, 17% negative) and filing a criminal lawsuit against Yulia Tymoshenko (43% positive, 35% negative).

The majority of the people believe that the new government is more or less meeting its commitments, such as: paying wages, pensions and stipends on time, forming a new national budget for 2010, ensuring access of citizens to objective information and enforcing law and order.

On the downside, the new government is unsuccessful in its fight against corruption, reducing inflation, re-establishing justice in the privatization of the largest state enterprises and stimulating economic growth.

Economic climate and corruption

51% of the people believe that the economic climate in Ukraine has not changed since the new government has been in power, 23% believe it has somewhat improved, 2% say it has significantly improved, 4% say it has become worse and 8% believe it has become slightly worse.

Public opinion of the place of residence is similar. The majority of the people (63%) believes has practically not changes, 21% see a slight improvement and 10% say it has become worse. Also, 59% of the surveyed say the material status of the majority of families has practically not changed, 25% felt a significant or slight improvement and 14% say their financial status has not changed. 

33% of Ukrainians surveyed assessed the level of corruption as high and 42% assessed it as high. A large part of the population has run into situations of corruption under the new government: 10% - very often and 25% - often. These figures are higher than those registered during the first 100 days of the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko (then 7% said they ran into situations of corruption very often, while 13% responded – often).

The Church has the highest and most stable level of trust among all social institutions (the trust-distrust ratio is +52%). The level of trust in the Ukrainian media is also high at +35%, in the armed forces of Ukraine -- +17%, in President Viktor Yanukovych -- + 22%, in the government of Ukraine -- + 9%, in the SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) -- +9%.

Ukrainians have the lowest level of trust in banks (trust-distrust ratio is –52%). Further, the level of distrust is as follows: courts (–45%), political parties (–38%), the police (–37%), the Prosecutor General’s Office (–36%), the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (–24%), the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (–19%), non-government organizations (–9%). Compared to March 2005, today Ukrainians are much less trusting of practically all social institutions. The Verkhovna Rada, banks, political parties, the police and the PGO have lost the trust of the majority of Ukrainians. 

If elections to the Verkhovna Rada were to be held in the nearest weeks, the Party of Regions would garner the highest percentage of votes – 41.2% of those that that voted. After that, the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko – 16.0% and the Strong Ukraine Party (Serhiy Tihipko) – 11.1%.

The following parties would also hurdle the electoral barrier: The Bloc of Arseniy Yatseniuk (5.3%), Svoboda (Oleh Tyahnybok) – 3.1% and the Communist Party of Ukraine – 2.9%. 2.6% would vote against all and another 12.5% are undecided.

Recommendations to the government as to how to retain the trust of voters

The new government took into account the mistake of the “orange” government – namely, internal weakness – and devised a mechanism of non-problematic functioning of the three branches of government that effectively and concertedly work with one another: the court supported the method of forming a coalition with independent deputies, the majority of the parliament easily adopts the necessary laws and the government demonstrates coordinated work on fulfilling the president’s course. The issue is the legality of forming a coalition and establishing an unbiased judicial system, while the government ensures stability and fulfillment of pre-election promises.

Today, if to take into account the work of the three branches of government, the latter has all the conditions for fulfilling the declared programs like never before. The fulfillment of the budget, the start of implementing declared economic reforms, conducting judicial reform and adopting an optimal tax code should have been the logical actions of the government.

Ukrainians believe the top-priority problems that the new government must deal with are in the socio-economic sphere: overcoming the economic crisis and economic growth (74%), fighting corruption (52%), healthcare reform (46%), taking care of the most unprotected strata of the population (36%), conducting pension reforms (32%) and canceling deputy immunity (27%).

At the moment, the government is targeting its potential (unity of power) to building an authoritarian model of governance to its own benefit. The proposed judicial reform in its current form basically stipulates the usurpation of the judicial power by one political force.

The tax code expands the possibilities of tax authorities to “grab taxpayers by the throat”. In other words, taxation is accompanied by worse terms for entrepreneurs. Copying the orange team, we are observing a growth in budget expenditures and foreign loans.

Currently, the government is trying to reinforce its position for as long as possible and satisfy the expectations of oligarchs. On the other hand, people are waiting for economic reforms and have faith that the financial well-being of the average citizen will improve. If the government does not see its mistakes in time, namely self-enrichment, the support of the people that do not feel tangible improvement in their lives will begin to sharply fall.

100 DAYS OF THE OPPOSITION:
 THE OPPOSITION SHOULD NOT ONLY HAVE A PROGRAM “AGAINST”,  BUT ALSO “FOR” 

Tallying the results of the first 100 days of the new government together with an assessment of the first 100 days of the political opposition has become customary. In this article, we will try and analyze the latter. 

Clearly, the first days of an alternative government looked natural. The agony of defeat was quite passive and was characterized by the disappearance of Yulia Tymoshenko and the total removal of Viktor Yushchenko from political processes.

At the same time, inspired by victory the new government actively began bringing to fruition its understanding of the country’s path of development. The most decisive step on this path was the reorientation of Ukraine’s foreign policy towards Russia and distancing itself from the EU and NATO. But together with this the Tax Code was adopted and the budget is close to approval. Even during the rule of Leonid Kuchma many years were frittered away on drafting the Budget Code… 

Giants and Lilliputians living in the bosom of the opposition

Apparently, for many the defeat in the elections and the offensive of Viktor Yanukovych after them on all fronts, from humanitarian to economic, was unexpected. Scientific Director of the School of Political Analysis and professor of the National University of the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Oleksiy Haran says that politicians and academicians did not anticipate such a move. Those that seriously discussed the possibility of Tymoshenko retaining her post as premier in the Yanukovych administration motivated by the fact that he did not have a majority in the Verkhovna Rada should have been surprised by this.    

Testing the defeat became intolerable for the systemic parliamentary opposition, which was considered a monolith. As long as the political spectrum has existed in Ukraine, members of the People’s Movement of Ukraine (Rukh) have disliked the Ukrainian Republican Party and the Democratic Party of Ukraine, the National Movement of Ukraine equally dislikes the Ukrainian National Republic/Ukrainian National Party, the UNP obliquely looks at the Reform and Order Party, different forms of the Christian Democrats fight with one another and dwarf parties loudly say “yeah” in favor of those that at one time were the strongest among the democrats. The country has been listening to such cacophony for nearly two decades. 

Those parties that have been in the opposition and battling on the national-democratic field for nearly 20 years, have once again become the leaders of the opposition. It is good that at least somebody is working and assuming responsibility, but this is not enough to seriously counteract the current government. 

Meanwhile, the blocking of democratic political forces continues. Valentyn Nalyvaichenko and politicians close to Petro Poroshenko recently started up their own political projects. Once again, this is easier than cutting a deal or uniting with existing parties. 

Even Nalyvaichenko knows how to clear his political battlefield. You simply have to undertake a housecleaning in a patriotic environment. What is interesting is how should such housecleaning be done and who will be in the tribunal? 

The idea of revamping the political spectrum is not new and very beneficial. From one election to the next in Ukraine, the elite do not change. Instead, we observe a simple and natural rotation of politicians. Even prior to the Orange Revolution and before he felt the taste of power, Mykola Tomenko proposed limiting the term of members of parliament to two convocations. At that time, he did not get the necessary support even from his colleagues in the opposition. But when did they ever support any proposal that limits their personal comfort? Hence, the notion of cleaning house of patriots will not work, even under the command of the former head of the SBU. 

Who else is part of the opposition? Haran does not consider Tihipko and Yatsenyuk to be among the opposition. In Haran’s opinion, the aforementioned work by old principles, but are playing the same games. Anatoliy Hrytsenko is an interesting figure in the opposition, but he has no team or financial resources. While “For Ukraine” is an ideological party, there are major doubts that it will be able to go beyond the national-democratic niche.

Haran pointed out that the Svoboda party totally meets the interests of the Party of Regions. After all, it is convenient for the PoR to associate itself with such extreme views that Svoboda professes.

Further, in Haran’s opinion the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT) remains the most powerful opposition force, despite the fall in its ratings, which typically happens after a loss in elections that Yanukovych also experienced in his time.

And then there is former president Viktor Yushchenko. Was he disappointed with the results in the elections? Today, nobody among social scientists gives him more than a 0.5% rating as a president. 

Not too long ago one could presume that some of the national-democrats may unite around Yushchenko under the slogan “trouble will teach you a lesson, but life will force it upon you!” Now, while discussions are being held as to who leads Our Ukraine – Yuriy Yekhanurov or Valentyn Nalyvaichenko – and who will faster tie the knot with the Party of Regions, such a prospect becomes even more ghostly.

Yanukovych and his team are gradually monopolizing power. This process is not that gradual, but the teams of parliamentary forces are inevitably breaking up. Tymoshenko failed to revamp her political party prior to the elections and she did not even try to do so after her defeat. Now, defectors are doing the dirty work for Tymoshenko to bring order to the party’s staffing. 

Despite this, things are not as bad as they may seem. After all, there was never a time when one fourth of parliamentarians adamantly stood for democracy. Social psychologist Oleh Pokalchuk says 20% of the critical mass of people or ideas is enough to influence public opinion.

Moreover, it has become a rule of thumb that when people give a vote of confidence in the government, half a year after the elections the leadership melts like snow.

Today, according to the results of public opinion polls conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov Centre for Economic and Political Studies, 54% of the population positively rated the activity of President Viktor Yanukovych. The same rating of the performance under President Viktor Yushchenko after his first 100 days in office in 2005 was 73%.

General Director of the Open Policy Foundation Ihor Zhdanov forecasts that this winter or even earlier Yanukovych’s ratings will begin to fall. Up until this time, the opposition forces should put forth their alternative proposal for the country’s development instead of simply criticizing the ruling government.

So, what must be done so that the opposition can revive itself and put the country back on the democratic and European path of development?

First of all, it should stop the in-fighting and finally unite.

Ihor Zhdanov accentuates that the opposition should finally begin working for the sake of national interests. It should also stop the mudslinging as there are precepts for changes in the powers that be in the foreseeable future. 

Secondly, the opposition should be above the political spectrum. 

Oleksiy Haran noted that more efforts should be made to achieving unifying the average citizen as the level of trust in them and journalists is higher than it is towards politicians. 

Thirdly, the opposition must think about how to change its modus operandi. In the first stages the new government, the opposition tried resolving issues by cavalier raids organizing massive acts of protest, though they did not have any socio-economic grounding to do so. Clearly, the first days of the activity of the new government did not elicit moods of protest among the majority of the population.

Deputy Director of the Sociological Service at the Razumkov Centre Mykhailo Mishechenko is convinced that the opposition must find that sphere of activity in which it can truly resolve issues that citizens are concerned about. Any other behavior will lead to a further drop in the ratings of the opposition and worsen people’s attitudes towards it. According to the results of the aforementioned public opinion poll, 50% of Ukrainians gave a negative assessment of the activity of the opposition forces. 

Fourthly and in closing, the opposition should once and for all stop fooling itself and the people. This is likely the most important thing. 

Either the current opposition force will outdo itself, or a new opposition force will emerge. On the surface of society there is a degree of stabilization, but dissatisfaction with the actions of the new government is building up among the active members of society. In conditions of an information society, the Internet and social networks of people with similar views of the world and political outlook find one another much faster. And it is virtually impossible to control this process. Stopping this is much more difficult than putting pressure on a publisher of a newspaper or an organization that spreads a television signal. Herein lies the main resource for re-energizing the development of democracy. 

But in order for this resource to be opened and for it to work towards a common goal, a radical and at the same time democratic program of reforms that is believable and can be implemented must be proposed to the current political opposition.

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