How relations between Ukraine and Russia should look like? Public opinion polls’ results


Public opinion poll was conducted by the Ilko  Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation together with Kyiv International Institute of Sociology  in the period between February, 8-18 2014. 2032 respondents were interviewed  in all the districts  of Ukraine (including  Kyiv) and in Crimea according to the random sample, which was representative for  all the population of Ukraine older than 18 years.  Statistical error doesn’t  exceed  2,2% (without design -effect). Question included by  the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation were financed  in the framework of the project “Public sociological consortium” by the European union, MATRA programme  of the Kingdom of Netherlands, International Renaissance Foundation, and also  in the framework of the project  “Stimulating dialog on transition processes” by the National Endowment for Democracy (USA).

Data from public opinion poll, conducted by Russian research organization Levada Centre  is provided for comparison. Levada Centre  conducted  representative for Russia public opinion poll  on February,  21-25 2014 and interviewed  1603 respo

ndents older than 18 years in 130 settlements in 45 districts of the country. Statistical error doesn’t exceed 3,4%.

Ukrainians don’t want visas and borders with Russia, but at the same time don’t want  to be united with Russia  in a single state  

  • In Ukraine, as well as in Russia  majority of respondents  wants both countries to be independent, but friendly  - with open borders, without visas and customs houses (in Ukraine – 68%, in Russia – 59%). In Ukraine  with numbers  have decreased  since November, 2013 by 5%, in Russia – increased  by 4%.

Integration with  Russia into a single state   is supported by 12% of respondents in Ukraine, and  during recent years  this number has decreased from 20% to 9%,  but after Maidan – increased by 3%.  The main part of  supporters of this idea of unification with Russia is in the East (26%) and South (19%), while the smallest part is in the Center (5%) and West (1%) of Ukraine.  By regions  majority of integration with Russia in one state  is in Crimea  (41%), Donetsk district (33%), Lugansk district (24%), Odessa district (24%), Zaporizhzhya (17%) and Kharkiv  (15%) districts, but even there  support  to the current status of relations  with Russia   - as two independent and  friendly  states – prevails. 

  • Among Russians  desire to have Ukraine and Russia as two independent and friendly states (with open borders, without visas and customs houses) prevails as well as among Ukrainians (68% and 63% respectively). Integration into one state is supported  by 9% of Ukrainians and 32% of Russians. There is direct dependence  between  desire to unite with Russia into  a single state and age of respondents:  among youth   up to 30 years old  5% want this unification to be realized, among people of 30-54 years old – 11% support that, and  among people older than 55 years – 17%.
  •  It is obvious, that among supporters of joining the Custom Union, there is more people supporting unification  with Russia  (26,5%), than among  those, oriented on joining the EU (1%). However,  even among supporters of entering the Custom Union  majority   wants  to preserve the status-quo in relations with Russia (69%). Among  people, having negative attitude towards Maidan,  only 21% wants to unite with Russia into a single state.
  • Among supporters of political parties  the highest percentage  of people, who wants join Ukraine to join Russia, is among  communists’ electorate  (35,5%), but even in this case majority  consider that Ukraine and Russia should be friendly independent states (63%). Among  Party of Regions  voters 28% support unification with Russia.
  • In Russia  16% of population support  unification with Ukraine into one state.

 

TABLES

What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (region-specific results)*

 

West

Centre

South

East

Ukraine in general

Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses.

24.0

20.9

10.5

2.0

14.7

Ukraine and Russia   must be independent, but friendly  states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses.

66.7

69.7

63.8

72.2

68.0

Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state

0.7

5.4

19.4

25.8

12.5

Difficult to say/No answer

8.6

3.9

6.3

0.0

4.7

 

What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (by nationality)

 

Ukrainians  

Russians

Ukraine in general

Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses.

17.4

4.6

14.7

Ukraine and Russia   must be independent, but friendly  states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses.

68.4

62.9

68.0

Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state

8.7

31.8

12.5

Difficult to say/No answer

5.5

0.7

4.7

 

What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (by age)

 

18-29

30-54

55 and older

Ukraine in general

Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses.

20.1

15.6

11.7

14.7

Ukraine and Russia   must be independent, but friendly  states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses.

66.9

68.3

67.3

68.0

Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state

5.4

11.2

17.2

12.5

Difficult to say/No answer

7.6

4.9

3.8

4.7

 

What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (depending on orientation  on joining the EU or the Customs Union)

 

EU

Customs Union

Difficult to say

Ukraine in general

Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses.

29.2

2.8

11.2

14.7

Ukraine and Russia   must be independent, but friendly  states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses.

63.0

69.5

71.2

68.0

Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state

1.1

26.5

6.4

12.5

Difficult to say/No answer

5.8

1.1

11.1

4.7

 

What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (depending on attitude towards Maidan)

 

Support Maidan  

Don’t support

Difficult to say

Ukraine in general

Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses.

26.0

6.6

7.6

14.7

Ukraine and Russia   must be independent, but friendly  states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses.

66.9

69.2

62.1

68.0

Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state

2.3

21.4

8.6

12.5

Difficult to say/No answer

4.7

3.1

22.7

4.7

 

What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (depending on support to political parties)

 

Batkivshchyna

Svoboda

Communist party of Ukraine

Party of Regions

UDAR

Ukraine in general

Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses.

24.8

38.6

1.4

2.7

25.5

14.7

Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  open borders, without visas and customs houses.

68.9

58.4

63.1

67.9

67.9

68.0

Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state

0.1

0.0

35.5

28.3

2.1

12.5

Difficult to say/No answer

5.3

2.9

0.0

1.1

5.9

4.7

 

Dynamic of public opinion regarding  relations between Ukraine and Russia

Ukraine-Russia comparative data (Ukraine - Russia)

Percentage of those, who want Ukraine to join Russia*

Regions

Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state 2013, %

Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state February, 8-18 2014, %

AR Crimea

35.9

41.0

Donetsk

29.8

33.2

Lugansk

29.4

24.1

Оdessa

22.8

24.0

Dnipropetrovsk

14.7

13.8

Kharkiv

13.9

15.1

Zaporizhzhya

8.9

16.7

Vinnytsya

8.6

2.7

Kyiv (city)

3.7

5.3

Poltava

3.3

4.3

Kyiv (region)

3.0

6.4

Lviv

0.3

0.0

*) data is provided  only for the regions, where number of respondents  was sufficient  for statistical  representativeness

 

What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like?

 

UKRAINE

Дата

Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses

Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  open borders, without visas and customs houses

Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state

Difficult to say

In general

Aprі.08

10

67

20

3

100

Sept.08

17

66

16

2

100

Febr.09

8

68

23

1

100

May 09

10

65

23

2

100

Oct.09

11

67

19

3

100

March10

11

67

19

3

100

June 10

12

70

16

2

100

Oct.10

10

67

20

2

100

Nov.11

13

67

16

1

100

Febr.12

13

69

16

2

100

Sept.12

11

72

14

3

100

Febr.13

13

68

16

3

100

May 13

11

69

14

5

100

Nov.13

12

73

9

6

100

Febr.14

15

68

12

5

100

 

RUSSIA

Дата

Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses

Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  open borders, without visas and customs houses

Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state

Difficult to say

In general

March 08 

19 

56 

19 

100

Sept.08 

24 

52 

13 

11 

100

Jan.09 

29 

51 

12 

100

June09 

25 

55 

14 

100

Sept.09 

25 

55 

13 

100

Jan.10 

25 

55 

14 

100

May 10 

17 

64 

13 

100

Sept.10 

16 

60 

18 

100

Sept.11

16

63

14

6

100

Jan.12

16

61

16

8

100

Sept.12

14

60

20

6

100

Febr.13

13

64

18

6

100

May 13

19

58

15

8

100

Sept.13

23

55

16

6

100

Jan.14

19

59

16

6

100